China

Crude Oil and Bitcoin Outlook: Weaker Chinese PMI data, coupled with bearish market momentum, erased nearly all of crude oil’s 2025 gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains resilient above the $100,000 mark, awaiting the developing impact of the markets and new SEC policies.

It has been a lively start to the week for tech investors with Nvidia weighing on the broader market and yields, while investors sought the safety of the yen following news of open-source AI by China's DeepSeek. And this keeps my downside targets for USD/JPY alive and well.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Oil prices retreated from the $80 resistance level, lifting hopes for bears as Trump’s return to office and ceasefire agreements take center stage. China’s strong economic performance and non-OPEC oversupply risks remain critical to determining the sustainability of the 2025 uptrend.

Gold, Silver Forecast: Following the triangle formation in gold prices between December 2024 and January 2025, gold has taken a bullish turn, breaking above the $2,700 mark and eyeing its all-time high once again.

Crude Oil Forecast: Improving Chinese economic metrics, geopolitical developments, and declining inventories have pushed crude oil prices back toward the $80 mark. However, oversupply risks remain a key concern for 2025, raising questions about the sustainability of the current uptrend.

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude oil trends entered 2025 on a positive note, driven by holiday traffic and China’s commitments to economic stimulus and rising oil demand expectations. Despite Trump’s bearish oil agenda, China’s economic metrics remain a focal point in 2025, following its significant contribution to OPEC’s supply quota restrictions in 2024.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: After OPEC’s fifth downward revision for 2024 oil forecasts and additional cuts for 2025, crude oil prices stabilized near their 4-year support zone, buoyed by China’s stimulus commitments and significant Middle East reforms. Will it hold on FOMC week?

Crude Oil, Gold Forecast: Following China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, demand sentiment for Chinese oil and gold has surged, pushing crude oil above $70 and gold above $2,700. Middle East tensions continue to reinforce support levels for these commodities as drastic regional developments unfold.

Crude Oil Forecast: Oil market volatility is expected next week with Powell’s economic outlook and crude oil inventory updates.

With support in place and momentum trying to turn higher, we’re now looking for additional gains on the China A50 and Hang Seng.

US data steps away from the limelight to make way for inflation reports from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan. And throw in an ECB meeting, Australian employment report and the CCP's Third Plenum for good measure.

China’s major stock market indices have been falling since the middle of May. With little in the way of a decent bounce higher, I continue to suspect one could be due.

The inverted relationship between USD/HKD and the Hang Seng remains strong. And with the latter retracing -92% over the past month and risk of the US dollar falling further, perhaps the Hang Seng is due a bounce.

China’s fledgling economic recovery suffered another setback in April with activity indicators mostly disappointing, especially regarding the beleaguered property sector. The news weighed on the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Australian dollar.

Japan’s Nikki 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng have been like chalk and cheese coming out of the pandemic. As one surged, the other floundered. But the tide looks to be turning, and fast.

With the influence of the Chinese yuan stet to increase further, this primer looks at the PBOC's USD/CNY daily ‘fix’, an event every trader should become familiar with given its importance to currency markets.

Iron ore futures are in an increasingly ugly bear market, spiraling lower since the beginning of the year after defying bears for what seemed to be an eternity in 2023. With the price catching up to what fundamentals had been warning for months, traders are wondering how far the move can extend?