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EUR/USD, AUD/USD outlook: Forex Friday - May 17, 2024
Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will discuss the US dollar, euro and Aussie, and look ahead to the next week.
USD/CNH, USD/JPY, AUD/USD: China’s spluttering economy weighs on Asian currencies
China’s fledgling economic recovery suffered another setback in April with activity indicators mostly disappointing, especially regarding the beleaguered property sector. The news weighed on the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Australian dollar.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 eye a solid close for the week: Asian Open
AUD/USD and the ASX 200 have flourished this week thanks to renewed bets of Fed cuts, even though softer employment and wages data for Australia rekindled hopes of a lower RBA cash rate.
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Soft jobs report extinguishes risk of further RBA rate hikes
With unemployment spiking and broader measures of labour market slack increasing, the risk of strong wages growth sparking renewed inflationary pressures looks to have past.
AUD/USD breaks out, USD/JPY rolls over amidst worst day of 2024 for USD
The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.
USD could rally if CPI doesn’t soften from elevated levels: EUR/USD, AUD/USD
The US dollar continued to weaken ahead of today's US CPI report, helping EUR/USD and AUD/USD move towards key resistance levels. Yet traders will require a soft set of inflation figures for the pairs to stand any chance of breaking resistance.
AUD/USD shrugs off soft wages report, attention shifts to US inflation print
Australian wage pressures undershot expectation in the March quarter, denting the prospect of another rate hike from the RBA. AUD/USD managed to shake off the news within seconds, underlining that US CPI mains the only game in town for traders on Wednesday.
AUD/USD forecast: Bullish break on the cards – Technical Tuesday
The AUD/USD forecast is turning somewhat positive, both from a macro perspective and technical viewpoint.
US dollar stabilises ahead of Powell, PPI, USD/JPY eyes 157: Asian Open
The US dollar has regained its footing heading into a Powell speech and US PPI report, whilst USD/JPY looks set to break resistance and head for 157.
AUD/USD: Cracks in Australia’s business outlook are starting to show
The latest NAB Business survey revealed a big slowdown in hiring in April, with new orders also declining at the fastest pace in several years. Importantly, the weakness coincided with a noticeable deceleration in up and downstream price pressures.
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, gold look set to take advantage of US dollar weakness
The US dollar snapped its 3-day winning streak and formed a bearish outside day, helping gold reach our upside target. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are now eyeing a move towards key resistance levels.
AUD/USD snaps 4-day winning streak, ASX 200 set to follow? Asian Open
The Australian dollar handed back all of its pre-RBA gains, which was trying to notch up a fifth consecutive bullish day on anticipation of a more hawkish RBA. Yet the statement was not overly hawkish and Governor Bullock said the RBA “believe rates are at the right level to get inflation back to target”. Inflation was revised higher to show inflation falling back to target at a slower pace and the RBA remain “vigilant” to upside risks.
RBA backs uncertain productivity turnaround to achieve inflation target
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept Australia’s cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in May but refrained from increasing its longer-term underlying inflation forecasts, limiting the risk of a near-term interest rate hike.
AUD/USD rises into RBA, GBP/JPY, gold look set to bounce: Asian Open
Both gold and GBP/JPY are showing signs of stability around key support levels to suggest they could extend their bounce. But with AUD/USD rising for four days on anticipation of a hawkish RBA, whether AUD/USD can extend its rally beyond resistance is up for question.
AUD/USD forecast: RBA rate hike revival risk is real and growing
Stickiness in services and domestic inflation, accompanied by continued resilience in labour market conditions, points to the likelihood of the RBA striking a more hawkish tone in its May monetary policy meeting, creating upside risks for the Australian dollar
US dollar, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX analysis: COT report
The BOJ's intervention prevented large speculators from reaching a record level of net-short exposure, asset managers continued to trim net-long exposure to the US dollar and US indices and also flipped to net-long the VIX.
USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD key levels into Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US dollar fell for a second day after the Fed closed the door on any further hikes. And that places today’s nonfarm payroll report (NFP) into focus. But given NFP’s tendency to beat estimates in recent history, perhaps the US dollar could be setting itself up for a bounce. We take a look at key levels for US dollar index, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.
US dollar ‘bull’ dog unleashed, AUD/USD crushed on eve of Fed: Asian Open
A surprise rise in US wage pressures weighed on sentiment on the eve of the Fed meeting, sending the US dollar broadly higher, Wall Street lower as AUD/USD suffered its second worst day of the year.
AUD/USD suffers bearish blow from softer China PMIs, ugly Australian retail sales miss
The growth engine of the Chinese economy unexpectedly decelerated last month while Australian retail sales are growing at the weakest pace on record outside one-off economic shocks, putting AUD/USD under renewed pressure on Tuesday.
Shellshocked USD/JPY holds ground, 6-day rally on AUD/USD: Asian Open
Despite the MOF's best attempts, USD/JPY is holding above 155 - a level traders are clearly watching. AUD/USD shows the potential to extend gains into 66c, but having risen for 6 days already then perhaps the upside potential it limited.
Forex Seasonality – May 2024: Pullback Potential in EUR/USD and GBP/USD?
May has historically been the second-worst month for EUR/USD (-0.62%) and GBP/USD (-0.37%) - see what to watch for from the other major currency pairs!
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flip to net-short, JPY shorts near record high: COT report
There seems to be no fear in shorting then yen, given large speculators pushed net-short exposure to the second highest level on record last week. EUR/USD and GBP/USD also flipped to net-short exposure.
AUD/USD surges on uncomfortably high inflation update as RBA rate cut bets evaporate
AUD/USD is charging higher, powered by a hotter-than-expected Australian March quarter consumer price inflation report that has seriously dented the case for rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year.