Indices

On Tuesday I outlined a bullish case for bitcoin futures whilst prices remained above $60k. One soft US CPI and retail sales report later, bullish range expansion has most certainly kicked in.

The 1-2 combination of soft CPI and retail sales has driven EUR/USD higher and sent the DAX to fresh record highs.

Jobless claims rose more than expected, providing fresh evidence of a cooling US labour market and helping to support the view that the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates by around September. Nasdaq 100 technical analysis remains positive for now.

EUR/USD is consolidating, but optimism about falling interest rates and solid corporate performance has boosted the DAX to record highs above 18,600.

The Australian dollar handed back all of its pre-RBA gains, which was trying to notch up a fifth consecutive bullish day on anticipation of a more hawkish RBA. Yet the statement was not overly hawkish and Governor Bullock said the RBA “believe rates are at the right level to get inflation back to target”. Inflation was revised higher to show inflation falling back to target at a slower pace and the RBA remain “vigilant” to upside risks.

S&P 500 analysis: Investors interpret Fed as slightly less hawkish than expected, but macro concerns remain. Attention turns to Apple, expected yo report a 10% decline in iPhone sales, before Friday's release of NFP and ISM services PMI.

The break above $2300 for gold was accompanied by strong volumes, and with the US dollar mulling a pullback it could benefit gold further over the near term.

The Nasdaq 100 is poised to snap a 5-month winning streak by Tuesday's close, which begs the question as to if the old adage 'sell in May and go away' arrived a month early.

The S&P 500 extends losses to third week amid raised geopolitical risks and rising bond yields. Concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is at the forefront of investors’ minds. The situation remains volatile with Israel seeking revenge for Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saturday.

The recent underperformance of the Dow Jones has not come without warning, as asset managers have been reducing their net-long exposure for several weeks now. Yet the Nasdaq remains above 18k, which means it may be better suited for bulls should sentiment improve and leave the Dow Jones for bears to consider fading into, should prices rebound.

US indices are seeing diverging performance, with the DJIA looking relatively weak and the Nasdaq 100 uptrend remaining healthy.

DJIA analysis: Stocks tumble on Middle East jitters, as VIX spikes. US dollar has also extended its rally on reduced rate cut expectations and risk off sentiment. Meanwhile, gold looks like it may have topped out.

Nasdaq 100 analysis: What’s driving the market right now? Well, not much. PPI was mixed, which eased inflation concerns somewhat after a hot CPI report the day before. The focus is now turning to the first quarter earnings season. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup will start bank earnings on Friday.

DAX technical levels and factors to watch on the German index as it tests the pivotal 18,000 level with the focus turning on the ECB rate decision, while US sticky inflation concerns make unwelcome return ahead of PPI data.

All eyes are on today's ECB meeting, Fed speakers and US PPI figures to see if it can drive ERUR/USD lower or spark a rebound, after it suffered its worst day in 13 months on Wednesday.

June rate cut uncertainty amid economic resilience, as stocks wobble ahead of CPI. S&P 500 technical analysis shows bullish trend is starting to weaken.

Tensions surrounding the Middle East has unsettled markets. US indices such as the S&P 500 are on track for their worst week of the year, crude oil reached a fresh YTD high and the risk-off sentiment was even enough to knock gold from its record. Traders therefore need to be on guard for headline risks surrounding the Middle East next week, alongside the usual bouts of economic data and central bank meetings.