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GBP/USD: Trade setups for today’s important US jobless claims update
US jobless claims data will garner far more interest than usual later Thursday as traders assess whether last week’s unusually large increase was an anomaly or start of a new trend. Testing a key level on the charts, two-way risk created by the data makes GBP/USD a pair to keep on the radar.
It’s time to reassess the US dollar outlook
With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.
AUD/USD shrugs off soft wages report, attention shifts to US inflation print
Australian wage pressures undershot expectation in the March quarter, denting the prospect of another rate hike from the RBA. AUD/USD managed to shake off the news within seconds, underlining that US CPI mains the only game in town for traders on Wednesday.
Nikkei 225 faces crucial technical test as USD/JPY correlations go AWOL
Japan’s Nikkei 225 faces an important technical test today, pushing back to towards a resistance zone it’s been unable to break for weeks. With risk appetite rampant and softer yen helping to juice the earnings outlook for exporters, if bulls can’t reclaim the ascendancy today, when will they ever?
EUR/USD: High bar for US economic data creates asymmetric upside risks
it’s now up to incoming data and news flow to continue fuelling the bullish USD narrative, otherwise it risks sparking a reversal. We may be seeing the inception of such a move in EUR/USD right now.
USD/CNH: AUD, NZD, JPY face hammering if Asia’s FX anchor comes loose
If you trade Asian currencies like the Japanese yen, Australian or New Zealand dollar, you should always keep a close eye on what’s happening in the Chinese yuan. You’re doing yourself a disservice if your not.
AUD/USD: Cracks in Australia’s business outlook are starting to show
The latest NAB Business survey revealed a big slowdown in hiring in April, with new orders also declining at the fastest pace in several years. Importantly, the weakness coincided with a noticeable deceleration in up and downstream price pressures.
NZD/USD: New Zealand economic downturn worsening ahead of key RBNZ inflation survey
While that keeps the prospect of a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the table should inflationary pressures suddenly subside, for now, movements in NZD/USD continue to be dictated by sentiment on what the Federal Reserve may do with US interest rates in the months ahead.
NZD/USD: US dollar corrective bounce looks mature, Kiwi upside favoured
The New Zealand dollar has been holding up well despite USD strength, continuing to find bids below .6000. With downside price momentum starting to ebb, grounds are building for near-term NZD/USD upside.
US dollar outlook Eliminate market noise using this indicator on DXY directional risks
As one of the most liquid futures contracts worldwide that combines fundamentals and technical views, it compresses huge amounts of information to provide an instant guide on where markets see directional risks for short-term US interest rates.
AUD/USD forecast: RBA rate hike revival risk is real and growing
Stickiness in services and domestic inflation, accompanied by continued resilience in labour market conditions, points to the likelihood of the RBA striking a more hawkish tone in its May monetary policy meeting, creating upside risks for the Australian dollar
USD/JPY: Bullish case eroding fast as US economic data rolls over
The game for USD/JPY changed last week. The likely intervention from the BOJ on at least one occasion to support the Japanese yen, coupled with a large reversal in US bond yields, means the extremely successful strategy of buying dips may have run its course near-term.
USD/JPY: Toppy US bond yields, BOJ intervention threat mean the game has changed
The suspected intervention from the BOJ this week has changed the game for USD/JPY, placing a rather large barrier in the way of further upside at a time when US bond yields were already looking toppy.
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: New Zealand recession is hammering the jobs market, inflation next
New Zealand’s unemployment rate jumps more than expected despite a collapse in labour force participation, putting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand closer to cutting interest rates before the US Federal Reserve. NZD/USD fell sharply while AUD/NZD rose to new cycle highs.
EUR/USD price action warns of downside risk ahead of key inflation and growth data
EUR/USD looks tired ahead of key inflation and GDP data from the continent later Tuesday, struggling to hold the gains which took it to two-week highs on Friday.
AUD/USD suffers bearish blow from softer China PMIs, ugly Australian retail sales miss
The growth engine of the Chinese economy unexpectedly decelerated last month while Australian retail sales are growing at the weakest pace on record outside one-off economic shocks, putting AUD/USD under renewed pressure on Tuesday.
USD/JPY: Japan provides a big hint on what may prompt further BOJ yen intervention
Japanese officials had been warning for months that speculative moves in the Japanese yen would not be tolerated without elaborating on what exactly constituted a ‘speculative’ move. We may have just been provided the answer.
USD/JPY: Japan was just given every excuse to trigger BOJ intervention
If Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) was looking for a trigger to instruct the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene in currency markets, they were just provided a big one. Expect heightened near-term volatility in USD/JPY on Monday.
Australian dollar setups following hot inflation print: AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD
It’s not just AUD/USD and the RBA interest rate outlook that have been shaken up by Australia’s hot March quarter inflation report with the Australian dollar gaining sharply against the crosses, especially those currencies whose central banks are still expected to ease monetary policy this year.
US dollar stumble a tremor before the true FX earthquake hits
If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.
AUD/USD forecast: Bullish reversal may have legs before key inflation update
Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.
GBP/USD: Selling squeezes as bearish fundamentals and technicals combine
Divergent economic and monetary policy outlooks for the US and UK continue to weigh on GBP/USD, making the case for downside a far easier sell than for upside right now.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Jobs report has little RBA implications, back to watching China
Australians are none the wiser as to what’s happening in the domestic labour market with another volatile jobs report creating more questions than answers. AUD/USD is largely unmoved, leaving offshore factors to remain in the driving seat.