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Gold rebound stalls as key market drivers go AWOL
Gold continues to consolidate below just record highs, paying scant attention to movements in other markets and geopolitical headlines since the start of May. As such, until we receive a definitive signal on direction, range trading is favoured near-term.
US dollar, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, VIX analysis: COT report
The BOJ's intervention prevented large speculators from reaching a record level of net-short exposure, asset managers continued to trim net-long exposure to the US dollar and US indices and also flipped to net-long the VIX.
Gold analysis: Metal ready to take off again?
Gold analysis: Metal remains fundamentally support, so we could see a renewed rally. This week’s macro highlights include FOMC policy decision, NFP and ISM PMIs. Gold technical analysis shows prices respecting the 21-day exponential moving average.
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD flip to net-short, JPY shorts near record high: COT report
There seems to be no fear in shorting then yen, given large speculators pushed net-short exposure to the second highest level on record last week. EUR/USD and GBP/USD also flipped to net-short exposure.
US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities
Momentum turned higher for the US dollar on Friday and the US 2-year is reconsidering a break above 2%, which could see them close the gap with the CRM commodities index - which have led both markets higher this year.
EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, 2-year note analysis: COT report
EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.
Crude oil spikes on reports of Israeli airstrike, gold threatens new high
WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.
WTI crude oil forecast: Price action unconvincing despite strong tailwinds, fat tail risks
Crude oil appears toppy after a mammoth rally since February, unable to push higher despite some seriously strong tailwinds stemming from geopolitics, supply curbs and ongoing strength in the US economy.
US dollar, yen, VIX, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report – April 15, 2024
Net-short exposure to yen futures rose to a 16-year high last week, and now within reach of its record. Asset managers appear to be on the right side of the US dollar trade, with large speculators remaining net-short despite the dollar's rally. Net-long exposure for oil and gold futures continued to trend higher, but neither are at levels which screams sentiment extreme. And asset managers are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure to the VIX.
Gold price reversal resembles blow-off top into escalating geopolitical tensions
Big, ugly and unusual given the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You can see why traders are questioning whether the big reversal in gold last Friday may signal we’ve seen a near-term top after a rollicking start to 2024.
Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking key resistance
Gold and silver are doing exactly what you’d expect after breaking long-running resistance. And that's before you consider fundamentals such as geopolitics, central bank purchases, limited mine development, rising inflation expectations and troubling fiscal outlooks from some of the world’s largest economies.
Crude oil, gold pullbacks unlikely to last long with inflation expectations so elevated
It’s not just fundamentals and technicals driving the rally across large parts of the commodity complex right now, but also a collective rethink from traders about what more than 250 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this cycle will mean for the long-term global inflation trajectory.
USD/JPY, Gold outlook: The payrolls figure in the NFP report is not as important as you think
Forget focusing on the payrolls figure in the US jobs report. It’s not as important as it’s made out to be. Traders would be better off looking at unemployment and average hourly earnings data if they want to know how markets are likely to react.
Crude oil forecast: Bullish golden cross looms as WTI hits 2024 highs
The crude oil rally has seen the 50-day moving average flick sharply higher, putting it on track to generate a Golden Cross as it moves above the 200-day moving average. History suggests this may fuel further gains despite the price sitting in overbought territory.
Gold Analysis: XAU/USD Surges to Fresh Record Above $2250 – Where Next?
Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish above previous-resistance-turned-support near $2200 ahead of NFP on Friday
Crude oil rises on production cuts, ASX 200 set to retrace? Asian Open
With geopolitical tensions on the rise and Russia announcing production cuts as infrastructure continues to face attacks, the path of least resistance for WTI crude oil appears to be higher.
The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher
Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.
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Crude oil consolidates bullish break, gold heavy after record run
How many rate cuts the Federal Reserve signals for 2024 could have an outsized impact on how commodities such as crude oil and gold perform longer-term.
GBP/USD hints at sentiment extreme ahead of BOE, FOMC: COT report
With a BOE and FOMC meeting pending and net-long exposure for GBP/USD at or near a sentiment extreme, I cannot help but wonder if the pound it due at least a pullback. I also take a closer look at the US dollar index (DXY), gold and the Nasdaq 100.
Crude oil analysis: WTI breaks $80 barrier
Factors supporting oil price include optimism over China, bullish forecast from IEA and general strength in commodities.
Commodities warning of shifting directional price risks
Gold, copper, silver, crude, cocoa – it’s a rarity to not come across a particular commodity that’s suddenly running hard. Every day there seems to be another one joining the increasingly lengthy list, providing a sense we may be at a turning point for the broader commodity complex.
Hold your horses before buying copper’s bullish break
Those considering buying the break may want to look at copper’s lousy track record when it’s been this overbought on the four hourly chart in the past.
The seeds for iron ore’s latest lurch lower were sown last week
Iron ore futures are in an increasingly ugly bear market, spiraling lower since the beginning of the year after defying bears for what seemed to be an eternity in 2023. With the price catching up to what fundamentals had been warning for months, traders are wondering how far the move can extend?