The geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine have largely explained gold’s rally over the past two weeks. And the theme’s overriding impact on gold prices this week is clear, given how it has whipsawed over the past two days amidst conflicting headlines.
Smokes, mirrors and propaganda are sadly to be expected during such turbulent times, but gold traders need to worry about the details as it is all down to whether Russia attacks or not. Should they invade then gold is likely to be catapulted higher, but to see a sharp reversal that actually sends gold markedly lower would likely require Russian troops to actually be seen leaving the border.
The middle ground of those two extreme scenarios leaves a lot of hearsay and headlines to soft through. But, as Russia is the attacking side, their word is less likely to be taken seriously – which leaves gold vulnerable to reports that they are increasing their military presence and not withdrawing troops, as they would like many to believe. And that makes gold an attractive hedge for an invasion of Ukraine, which would move into a speculative bet should that unfortunate event materialise.
In today’s video, we look at technical levels for gold futures, on the daily and monthly charts.
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