US Dollar
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USD ‘rebound’ lacks the enthusiasm of last week’s selloff: Asian Open
The US dollar may have risen for a third day, yet bulls lack the conviction that bears displayed last week. And that suggests this bounce could be corrective.
NFP Preview: US Dollar Bounce Potential if Jobs Remain Strong
The US dollar is testing support and the NFP leading indicators point to a slightly above expectation reading this month, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 200-250K range
FOMC Meeting Recap: US Dollar (DXY) Drops as Powell Feeds the Doves
The US dollar initially fell and indices rose as traders interpreted the Fed meeting and press conference as dovish.
FOMC Meeting Preview: Will the Fed Put Rate Hikes on the Table?
US dollar traders will be watching Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference and any decisions about the central bank’s balance sheet runoff as potential market-movers for the US Dollar Index (DXY)
US dollar ponders correction as bond prices approach support
The US dollar has risen around 6% from the late December low. And with bond prices approaching support which could send yields lower, the US dollar rally could at least find some headwinds - if not a retracement.
NFP Preview: Another Hot Jobs Report on Tap? DXY in Focus
The US dollar is sitting in the middle of its 3-month range with leading indicators pointing toward slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth in the 200K-250K range.
US dollar, USD/JPY, gold performance around Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
Data since the Pandemic shows that NFP job growth has generally outperformed estimates and seen the prior figure upwards revised, which has played out well for US dollar bulls.
NFP Preview: Is the US Dollar Poised for a Bounce Back?
After slipping for the past three weeks, the US Dollar Index is testing key previous support at the 103.00 level, potentially setting the stage for a bounce on solid jobs data.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Respond to First 2024 Test Below $2k
Gold has been resilient so far in 2024 even as USD strength re-appeared. The big question now is whether bulls can find a more favorable outcome on tests of resistance at $2,032 or $2,050.
U.S. Dollar Price Action Webinar: DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, FX Majors
The U.S. Dollar set another fresh high yesterday, extending the bullish structure that’s priced in so far this year.
U.S. Dollar Post-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD (Gold)
The U.S. Dollar broke out and set another fresh 2024 high this morning as the currency continues to claw back Q4 losses.
Dollars and Sense: The Short-Term Case for US Dollar Strength
How interest rate differentials, scarcity, and falling liquidity could work together to boost the US dollar
NFP Preview: Why the US Dollar Could Be More Volatile Than Usual
The recent consolidation in the US Dollar Index and the Fed’s renewed data dependence could lead to a more-volatile-than-usual reaction in the US dollar.
US dollar pares earlier losses, gold bears eye $2000: Asian Open
Price action on the US dollar remains choppy, but the bias remains for a run for 104. And that could weigh on gold as bears eye a run towards $2000.
US dollar bulls resurface, ASX 200 tests well for today: Asian Open
The US dollar shows the potential to continue higher despite a wall of key moving averages. And according to forward returns analysis, the two days prior to Australia Day tend to bode well for the ASX 200.
USD: Behind the U.S. Dollar, the Global Reserve Currency
The U.S. Dollar plays an incredibly important role in the global economy and while ‘De-dollarization’ claims may pop up, the currency set a fresh all-time-high for usage last year and remains the world’s primary reserve currency.
USD bears have a rethink, GBP and AUD positioning diverges: COT report
The US dollar index rallied in line with last week’s bias on assumed short-covering. AUD/USD bears are retuning whilst traders pushed net-long exposure higher, making GBP/AUD longs of interest over the coming weeks.
Gold remains in demand, but less so against the US dollar
Gold is currently down -1.8% in January, and I see further downside potential due to the growing case for a stronger US dollar. But that doesn’t mean gold will fall against everything by the same degree, if at all.
Strong payroll data doesn’t deter equity bulls with Nasdaq up and Russell 2000 down
Today’s payroll data reiterated the run of strong labor market data with wages growing at 4% a key concern for the Fed. Futures markets reduced the probability of early rate cuts, but traders made few changes to their bullish stance on equities, bonds, gold or the dollar.
Dow challenges peak, Bitcoin’s mainstream moment is expected
The Dow Jones has quickly shaken off yesterday’s late losses is challenging record highs despite the comedown of the Fed minutes yesterday. The market remains optimistic over the state of the US economy, supported by today’s various jobs sector data releases; the flip-side is that too much strength could slow the pace of interest rate cuts with the Fed “likely at or near its peak rates” according to December policy meeting minutes yesterday. The Bitcoin rally will be tested pretty soon, as the SEC is intended to approve (or not) Bitcoin ETFs.
Oil prices rallies above $70 support, Russell 2000 dips on profit-taking
Oil prices appear to have found support at $70 per barrel, with news of US stock building, further OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East tensions spurring buying action. The Fed’s December meeting minutes were cagey on the outlook for interest rates in 2024. JOLTS labor market data pointed to further weakness, good news for inflation.
Nasdaq tumbles as bonds sell off, Gold holds historic highs
Equity, bond, and gold investors are pricing in large rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, but this week’s jobs data could spoil the fun. A bullish December for stocks might have pulled forward the typical January rally, spurred by the belief that the Fed is about to pivot. US Treasuries sold off in morning trade, with worries about the appetite to digest the major volume of new issues. There is some risk of disappointment in the interest rate outlook, notably with commodity prices indicating persistent inflation so there is less chance of a rate-cutting bonanza.
Russell 2000 leads US stocks, Gold hits another all-time high
The Russell 2000 was again the strongest US index, continuing a trend evident for two months. Gold prices touched $2,082.5 per ounce this morning, buoyed by a mixture of risk aversion and the anticipation of lower interest rates. This morning’s economic data showed strong durable goods demand and a modest decline in a key inflation gauge, the ‘PCE deflator’, generally supporting rate cuts early next year.