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Research

VIX shorts rose to 6-month high ahead of Trump tariffs: COT report

Some bullish fingers have likely been burned at this week's open, given the relatively bullish positioning on S&P 500 futures alongside short bets against the VIX rising to a 6-month high last week.

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USD/JPY Outlook: Risk Aversion Rises, Yen Gains as Trade War Erupts

USD/JPY traders beware—market drivers are shifting. While rate differentials remain key, an intensifying trade war could see risk aversion take control. Will the yen prove to be the ultimate safe haven?

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USD/JPY: Strong Japanese Data Keeps Bears in Control

Japanese economic data keeps the BOJ on track for more rate hikes. With USD/JPY teetering near key support, the risk of a downside break is growing. Will the bulls dig in, or is another leg lower on the horizon?

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January 31, 2025 12:33 PM

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USD/JPY Update: The Yen Recovers After the Fed Decision

USD/JPY has lost nearly 1% of its value over the last two trading sessions, allowing the Japanese yen to regain ground against the U.S. dollar.

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January 31, 2025 03:34 AM

USD/JPY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY: Key levels heading into US GDP

If my short bias for USD/CAD and long for USD/JPY come into play, it assumes CAD/JPY could outperform USD/JPY during a bout of yen weakness.

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January 30, 2025 03:31 PM
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USD/JPY: Bulls on the Ropes as Market Headwinds Strengthen

USD/JPY’s bullish run is under threat as key technical levels crumble, with momentum indicators flashing warning signs. As markets brace for major data releases from both the US and Japan, could the next catalyst tip the scales toward a decisive break?

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January 30, 2025 01:30 PM
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U.S. Dollar Rallies on Fed Statement, Pulls Back on Presser

It’s a busy week across macro markets and we’re just getting started after the FOMC. Tomorrow’s ECB meeting is expected to see a cut but the bigger item may be around Japan and USD/JPY.

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January 30, 2025 08:33 AM
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USDJPY, Gold Forecast: Markets Hold Ahead of FOMC

USDJPY, Gold Forecast: The USDJPY pair braces for heightened volatility between Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s Tokyo CPI release, while gold maintains its haven drive near record highs amid persistent inflation and trade war risks.

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U.S. Dollar Holds Support, Stocks Come Back to Life - Fed, ECB Coming Up

Stocks are clawing back losses from the weekly open even as the U.S. Dollar has bounced from a spot of support. The rest of this week is expected to be very busy on the macro front.

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USD/JPY Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve rate decision may sway the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as the central bank is expected to keep US interest rates on hold.

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By : David Song
January 29, 2025 03:15 AM
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USD/JPY rattled amid tech rout as China’s DeepSeek launches open AI

It has been a lively start to the week for tech investors with Nvidia weighing on the broader market and yields, while investors sought the safety of the yen following news of open-source AI by China's DeepSeek. And this keeps my downside targets for USD/JPY alive and well.

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U.S. Dollar, USD/JPY: Are Yen Carry Unwind Fears Driving the Global Sell-Off?

Fear drove early-session U.S. trade and this stands in stark contrast to just a week ago, when equities were driving to all-time-highs after the inauguration of President Trump.

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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

Yen-weakness is showing prominently against both the Euro and British Pound after the BoJ rate hike, and USD/JPY has held a major spot of support at 155.00.

Currency prices

US dollar forecast: USD/JPY rebounds ahead of more central bank action next week - Forex Friday

The US dollar forecast remains modestly bullish in our view, because of Trump’s inflationary policies. The fact that it has weakened a little in recent days is more of a reflection of the relief rally that some currencies like the euro have enjoyed.

Yen Steadies as BOJ Hikes Rates; Gold Eyes 2,800$

USDJPY, Gold Forecast: The Japanese Yen stabilizes amid the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate hike decision, while gold surpasses the $2,730 barrier eyeing all-time highs.

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January 24, 2025 08:13 PM
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Dollar Dominance at Risk? EUR/USD Surges, USD/JPY Teeters on Hawkish BoJ

Is the US dollar’s reign nearing its end? EUR/USD breaks higher while USD/JPY flirts with a key uptrend following the BoJ’s hawkish hike. A shift could be underway—are you ready?

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January 24, 2025 04:44 PM
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USD/JPY momentum turns lower as the BOJ hike rates to a 17-year high

The BOJ delivered the full 25bp hike as expected, which takes their interest rate to a 17-year high of 0.5%. Data released a few hours before the BOJ’s hike showed that Japan’s core CPI rose to a 16-year high, and the BOJ cited the fact that many firms have said they will continue to raise rate this year. And it is these growing wage pressures which have forced the BOJ to increase their price forecasts for fiscal year 2025 and 2026.

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January 24, 2025 03:15 PM

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Research

USD/JPY Implied volatility rises to the occasion ahead of BOJ

USD/JPY may be consolidating for now, but not for much longer if the ~230-pip implied volatility range is correct. And with a 25bp hike expected from a central bank notorious for not sticking with market consensus, nothing should be taken for granted.

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DAX, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch

DAX steadies around a record high. USD/JPY is muted ahead of Trump's speech & BoJ rate decision.

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January 23, 2025 09:10 PM
Forex trading

USD/JPY Forecast: The Yen Holds Ground as the BOJ Decision Approaches

The USD/JPY has lost more than 1.5% of its value over the last six trading sessions, allowing the Japanese yen to regain ground against the prolonged bullish trend favoring the US dollar.

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January 23, 2025 05:19 AM
Forex trading

USD/JPY Slips to Fresh Monthly Low Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

USD/JPY carves lower highs and lows ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision as it slips to a fresh monthly low (154.78).

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By : David Song
January 22, 2025 07:30 AM
Currency prices

Japanese yen forecast: USD/JPY and CAD/JPY in focus ahead of BoJ

The narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world has been a key theme in the improving Japanese yen forecast in the last couple of weeks.

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January 22, 2025 12:00 AM
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USD/JPY: Yield Compression Meets Tariff Turmoil Near Key Support Zone

USD/JPY slips to five-week lows as yield spreads tighten, but with US tariffs looming and a BoJ rate hike nearly fully priced, could nearby support zone provide the launch pad for a bounce?

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January 21, 2025 01:45 PM