USD JPY

Two trades that may be poised to benefit from the Trump economy next year: The U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin. The levels that matter on the technical charts heading into 2025.

For a couple months the carry trade in USD/JPY unwound as volatility spiked around-the-world. But even with the Fed holding in a cutting posture, the carry trade came back in Q4.

The trend is your friend, but in this case, I am going against that notion to provide a short fundamental idea on the rallying USD/JPY for 2025. That doesn’t mean you need to step in right away, but only once the appropriate bearish pattern emerges and we have a confirmation of a top.

USD/JPY enters 2025 at a crossroads. Rising US yields, hawkish Fed pivot, and expansionary fiscal policies could fuel more dollar strength, but BoJ moves and carry trade vulnerabilities may keep yen downside in check. The year ahead promises to be an eventful one.

USD/JPY enters 2025 at a crossroads. Rising US yields, hawkish Fed pivot, and expansionary fiscal policies could fuel more dollar strength, but BoJ moves and carry trade vulnerabilities may keep yen downside in check. The year ahead promises to be an eventful one.

USD/JPY surged post-FOMC with the bulls charging towards a major pivot-zone at uptrend resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

USD/JPY rallies to a fresh monthly high (154.64) even as the Federal Reserve implements a 25bp rate-cut at its last meeting for 2024.

Not only are traders increasingly long the US dollar, they are also piling into short EUR/USD bets. And that could pave the way for a sub-parity euro next year.

USD/JPY is testing its 200DMA, with traders eyeing today’s US inflation report as a potential catalyst. A strong core print could ignite bond yields and push the pair higher, while a softer outcome might cool the rally and invite fresh selling pressure. Tail risks look particularly acute around this important event.

USD/JPY rallies to a fresh monthly high (152.18) ahead of the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The US Dollar showed a strong support bounce since last Friday’s NFP report, setting the stage for resistance tests into tomorrow’s CPI and next week’s FOMC.

US Dollar rebounded off technical support last week with USD/JPY now testing the November downtrend. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.

USDJPY, Dow, Nasdaq Analysis: With forecasts pointing to an uptick in US inflation rates and overbought conditions in US indices, a critical wave of volatility is anticipated ahead of the holidays.

China's stock markets were given a nice bump on Monday after the Politburo announced an easing of policy stance. This allowed AUD/JPY and USD/JPY to deliver strong bounce from key support levels, as the yen weakened during a risk-on session for FX and commodities.

JPY strength ran into the December open but since USD/JPY and EUR/JPY set fresh lows last Tuesday, prices have been pulling back.

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure yen futures for the first time in six weeks. And it did not come without warning from myself or market positioning over the prior two weeks. Bullish exposure is certainly not extreme at just 2.4k contracts, but with odds of a BOJ hike rising and asset managers net-short by just 5.8k contracts, we could be looking at a stronger yen as we head into the new year given the turbulence we may face during Trump’s second term.

Will this week’s US inflation data spark a fresh bullish breakout for USD/JPY, or will bearish momentum finally tip the scales? With the pair tightly linked to long-term Treasury yields and technical signals flashing red, could a downside break be just around the corner?