FOMC

EURUSD, Nasdaq Analysis: The EURUSD pair hesitates below the 1.05 mark as the Federal Reserve holds rates with confidence, while the Nasdaq maintains its bullish rebound despite mixed earnings reports.

The Fed hinted at a longer pause to interest rates but Chairman Powell ultimately minimized his impact on markets in the January FOMC meeting.

Crude Oil and Bitcoin Outlook: Weaker Chinese PMI data, coupled with bearish market momentum, erased nearly all of crude oil’s 2025 gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains resilient above the $100,000 mark, awaiting the developing impact of the markets and new SEC policies.

Fear drove early-session U.S. trade and this stands in stark contrast to just a week ago, when equities were driving to all-time-highs after the inauguration of President Trump.

This will be the first formal FOMC meeting of President Donald Trump’s second term - what you need to know!

The USD has remained supported on expectations of a considerably-less dovish Fed. But with 'Fed day' generally being bearish for the dollar alongside its tendency to selloff into the year end, I have an inkling we're heading towards a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" for the USD.

Investors are eagerly anticipating what could be the final hurrah for volatility in 2024, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, as well as the BoE, all poised to reveal their rate decisions and provide outlook for the upcoming year. The GBP/USD forecast remains bearish.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: After OPEC’s fifth downward revision for 2024 oil forecasts and additional cuts for 2025, crude oil prices stabilized near their 4-year support zone, buoyed by China’s stimulus commitments and significant Middle East reforms. Will it hold on FOMC week?

EURUSD Forecast: EURUSD’s recent bullish reversal above the 1.08 mark will face a critical test this week as US election results and the FOMC meeting inject volatility into the markets.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: In the coming week, crude oil markets face heightened volatility risks due to a closely contested US election on Tuesday, uncertain FOMC meeting on Thursday, and persistent geopolitical conflicts.

Traders are pricing in roughly a 1-in-10 chance that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at its November, but it may take 4 more better-than-expected US economic reports in a row.

Market pricing appears to be sobering up and has done away with 50bp Fed cuts. But it could still be argued pricing still remains too dovish for next year, and EUR/USD may have further to fall should US data continue to outperform expectations while the ECB up their dovish rhetoric.

Given market’s pricing of the size of the rate cut, currently favouring a 50-basis point cut with a 65% probability,, gold could drop in case the Fed opts for 25 basis point cut today, which I think might be the case. As well as by the rate cut itself, the gold forecast will be influenced by the language the Fed chooses in today’s policy statement, press conference and the dot plots.

EURUSD, DXY Analysis: With the 25bps rate cut already priced into the market, the DXY is hovering at its December 2023 support. The next move depends on a confirming signal: either a wider rate cut to push it below that support or a rebound that could reverse the market's positive trends.

Traders appeared to be derisking ahead of the FOMC meeting, where money markets are backing a 50bp cut whereas economists still favour a 25bp cut. This saw ASX 200 futures track the Dow Jones lower, and USD/JPY post its best day in 23.

In the post-Bernanke “Fed Communication as a Policy Tool” era, this is the most uncertain that traders have ever been heading into a Fed meeting - what does that mean for markets?

GBPUSD Outlook: GBPUSD is trading on bullish grounds ahead of the monetary policy decisions and outlooks of the Fed and Bank of England.