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USD Surges as Trump’s Tariffs Bite—EUR, CNH Slide, CAD Slumps to New Lows

Trump's tariff escalation has sparked fresh volatility across major currency pairs, pushing the US dollar to new heights. EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/CNH are now at key technical levels, with traders bracing for potential breakouts or bounces. Here's what you need to know.

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USD/JPY Outlook: Risk Aversion Rises, Yen Gains as Trade War Erupts

USD/JPY traders beware—market drivers are shifting. While rate differentials remain key, an intensifying trade war could see risk aversion take control. Will the yen prove to be the ultimate safe haven?

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Make or break for AUD, CNH around key levels

Trump's tariffs and divergent monetary-policy expectations between the RBA and Fed are weighing on AUD/USD. But whether it can hold above the January low could come down to whether USD/CNH breaks above its 2022 high.

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USD/JPY: Strong Japanese Data Keeps Bears in Control

Japanese economic data keeps the BOJ on track for more rate hikes. With USD/JPY teetering near key support, the risk of a downside break is growing. Will the bulls dig in, or is another leg lower on the horizon?

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January 31, 2025 12:33 PM
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Silver Forecast: Bulls Push Past Key Hurdle—More Upside Ahead?

Silver bulls have finally cracked stubborn resistance, but can they maintain momentum? With gold hitting record highs, is this the beginning of a broader breakout for the precious metals complex?

Research

USD/CAD spikes to 5-year high as Trump's tariffs come knocking

Well, Trump's tariffs are not going away. In fact, they're on Canada's doorstep. And that was enough to send USD/CAD to a 5-year high late in the day on Thursday, which only adds to the excitement of month end flows and messy price action.

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USD/JPY: Bulls on the Ropes as Market Headwinds Strengthen

USD/JPY’s bullish run is under threat as key technical levels crumble, with momentum indicators flashing warning signs. As markets brace for major data releases from both the US and Japan, could the next catalyst tip the scales toward a decisive break?

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January 30, 2025 01:30 PM
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EUR/USD: ECB Rate Guidance Clouded as Central Banks Hit Pause

Central banks are pulling back on rate cut signals, with the Fed, BoC, and Riksbank all hitting pause. With markets betting on aggressive ECB easing, could traders be caught offside if the script changes?

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January 30, 2025 10:37 AM
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ASX 200 analysis: I’m not banking on a record high despite softer CPI

The ASX 200 index is eyeing a record high. But with SPI 200 futures dragging its heels below resistance looms and the Fed unlikely to cut soon, an immediate breakout is not on my horizon. Even though an eventual breakout seems inevitable.

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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Inflation Miss Sets Stage for First RBA Rate Cut Since 2020

Cooling inflation pressures have reignited speculation of an RBA rate cut, marking a potential shift in Australia’s monetary policy landscape. AUD/USD tests key support as ASX 200 SPI futures eye record highs.

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January 29, 2025 12:51 PM
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NZD/USD: Trade Wars, Not Rate Cuts, Are Calling the Shots

The RBNZ has slashed rates aggressively, but markets still think there’s more to come. With the central bank’s neutral rate estimate sitting well below current levels, cuts look set to continue in 2025. But rate differentials aren’t driving NZD/USD moves. A deeper look reveals a clear culprit.

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January 29, 2025 11:21 AM
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AUD/USD knocked lower for a second day heading into key inflation report

Today's quarterly inflation figures for Australia could be the difference between the RBA cutting rates or standing pat at their next meeting. And with market pricing a cut in, we need a soft trimmed-mean to avoid short-covering rebound on AUD/USD.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Quarterly CPI to decide on Feb cut

Wednesday’s inflation figures are the standout event for RBA watchers, as it could decide whether the RBA pull the trigger and cut rates in February. But if they fail to confirm the dovish excitement generated from the monthly report, AUD/USD runs the risk of a short-covering rally.

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Gold Forecast: Dip or Danger? Decoding Monday’s Price Pullback

Gold’s Monday wobble defied the usual playbook, dropping despite a softer USD and safe-haven demand. Is the bearish engulfing candle a signal for more downside ahead, or does the pullback provide another opportunity to reset longs for a run towards the record highs?

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January 28, 2025 12:01 PM
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USD/JPY rattled amid tech rout as China’s DeepSeek launches open AI

It has been a lively start to the week for tech investors with Nvidia weighing on the broader market and yields, while investors sought the safety of the yen following news of open-source AI by China's DeepSeek. And this keeps my downside targets for USD/JPY alive and well.

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Dollar Dominance at Risk? EUR/USD Surges, USD/JPY Teeters on Hawkish BoJ

Is the US dollar’s reign nearing its end? EUR/USD breaks higher while USD/JPY flirts with a key uptrend following the BoJ’s hawkish hike. A shift could be underway—are you ready?

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January 24, 2025 04:44 PM
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USD/JPY Implied volatility rises to the occasion ahead of BOJ

USD/JPY may be consolidating for now, but not for much longer if the ~230-pip implied volatility range is correct. And with a 25bp hike expected from a central bank notorious for not sticking with market consensus, nothing should be taken for granted.

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AUD/USD: Stuck in Limbo as Traders Brace for BoJ and Trump Twists

AUD/USD drifts in a tight range as traders weigh Trump’s tariff games and a pivotal BoJ decision. With momentum indicators flashing bullish signals, will a breakout finally take hold, or is another Trump twist looming to spark turmoil?

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January 24, 2025 09:42 AM
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S&P 500 Analysis: Conflicting signals arise just off its all-time high

The S&P 500 cash market settled just 4 points from its all-time high. Yet a reversal candle and unfavourable market positioning send a warning to bulls, yet recent history suggest this setup could be bullish.

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January 23, 2025 12:49 PM
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EUR/USD: No Major Surprises Expected as Fed and ECB Meetings Near

EUR/USD has settled in familiar territory, respecting established technical levels as market focus shifts to next week’s Fed and ECB meetings. With few policy surprises expected, that may provide a blueprint for traders to help cut through the noise.

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January 23, 2025 11:56 AM
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Gold grinds unconvincingly higher, USD finds support

I remain unconvinced that gold will simply break to a new record high without some sort of a shakeout. And Wednesday's lacklustre 'break' above its December high could serve as an early clue.

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January 23, 2025 09:51 AM
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NZD/USD: RBNZ Set for Third Jumbo Rate Cut as Inflation Keeps Cooling

With domestic inflation concerns firmly in the rear view mirror, NZD/USD remains at the mercy of global forces. Can the Kiwi chart a new course amid signs of easing US trade policy concerns?

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January 22, 2025 09:56 AM
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AUD/USD joins the yuan for the ride, though FX volatility cuts both ways

It has been a volatile week for FX traders so far this week, and one which has benefitted AUD/USD and yuan bulls. While both could extend their moves if US-Sino relations remain as warm as they first appear, traders would also be wise to remember volatility cuts both ways. Especially when Trump is waving his executive-order pen around.