Asian Open

The ASX 200 index is eyeing a record high. But with SPI 200 futures dragging its heels below resistance looms and the Fed unlikely to cut soon, an immediate breakout is not on my horizon. Even though an eventual breakout seems inevitable.

Today's quarterly inflation figures for Australia could be the difference between the RBA cutting rates or standing pat at their next meeting. And with market pricing a cut in, we need a soft trimmed-mean to avoid short-covering rebound on AUD/USD.

It has been a lively start to the week for tech investors with Nvidia weighing on the broader market and yields, while investors sought the safety of the yen following news of open-source AI by China's DeepSeek. And this keeps my downside targets for USD/JPY alive and well.

USD/JPY may be consolidating for now, but not for much longer if the ~230-pip implied volatility range is correct. And with a 25bp hike expected from a central bank notorious for not sticking with market consensus, nothing should be taken for granted.

I remain unconvinced that gold will simply break to a new record high without some sort of a shakeout. And Wednesday's lacklustre 'break' above its December high could serve as an early clue.

It has been a volatile week for FX traders so far this week, and one which has benefitted AUD/USD and yuan bulls. While both could extend their moves if US-Sino relations remain as warm as they first appear, traders would also be wise to remember volatility cuts both ways. Especially when Trump is waving his executive-order pen around.

The Japanese yen was again the strongest currency, which rose against all of its FX major peers. Looking through the charts suggests there could be further downside for USD/JPY and AUD/JPY.

AUD/USD plunged alongside Wall Street indices following the Fed's last meeting of the year. And if Santa’s rally is to kick in at all this year, it could be to pick up some of the crumbs left during yesterday’s volatile selloff.

A decent bullish reversal candle has formed on the ASX 200 on Tuesday, which begs the question as to whether Santa’s rally is about to kick into gear. Although it is the FOMC meeting within the next 24 hours which could decide when or even if it starts at all.

Wall Street indices are just not on the same page at the moment, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high, while the S&P 500 trading sideways and the Dow chalks up its worst daily bearish streak in 12 years. And that's not good for the ASX.

There's nothing quite like a volatile whipsaw to snap traders out of a lull, and that is exactly what we saw on gold and silver prices on Thursday, during a day of heavy losses. While I suspect price action to remain choppy, I also think they'll grind lower from here.

AUD/USD made a minor recovery from its 13-month low late on Wednesday, but whether it can muster up the strength for a decent bounce likely sits in the hands of USD/CNH. Although the ASX 200 could be set for a bounce with the Nasdaq reaching a record high and the S&P 500 close to its own ATH.

A dovish RBA meeting and stronger US dollar ahead of a key US inflation report has kept AUD/USD pinned to a key support level. And odds of it making a meaningful recovery this week appear low, without a surprise downside miss from US CPI. Which again, seems unlikely.

China's stock markets were given a nice bump on Monday after the Politburo announced an easing of policy stance. This allowed AUD/JPY and USD/JPY to deliver strong bounce from key support levels, as the yen weakened during a risk-on session for FX and commodities.

Weak GDP figures saw interest rates traders fully price in three 25bp RBA cuts by Feb 2026. And AUD/USD could have traded much lower on Wednesday, were it not for a stronger yuan coming to the Aussies rescue later in the day.

Having fallen over 5% from the November high already, the two days of indecision around support alongside a bullish divergence suggest USD/JPY could be vulnerable to some bullish mean reversion.