Asian Open

Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

The USD index defied the 3-day retracement that dared to defy its bullish trend and now appears on the cusp of a breakout. While this could signify EUR/USD dropping below 105, it may also equate to a bullish breakout on USD/JPY.

Hot CPI from Canada, a rise of geopolitical tensions and increased threat of tariffs played nicely for commodity FX bulls, with AUD, CAD and NZD leading the pack among FX majors on Tuesday. And there could be some wriggle room for further gains.

The USD retraced lower from its 1-year high for a second day, allowing AUD/USD to post a solid bounce from its cycle low. And price action suggest its bounce may not be over just yet.

The USD bullish rally continued to rage after Powell bluntly said that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, citing a strong labour market and a "remarkably strong" economy.

AUD/USD was off to a flying start on Monday with its bullish opening gap. And it could be given another bump if last week's hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data forces the RBA to up their hawkish rhetoric today. It is then in the hands of the US election as to which way AUD/USD travels next.

A less-dovish BOJ may have strengthened the yen while weak tech earnings weighed on Wall Street Thursday, but these patters could persist on Friday if they follow their usual pre-election path looking, according to historical data.

Stronger EU data and pushback on cuts from ECB sent EUR/USD up to its 200-day MA ahead of risk events. I also assess the trend structures of yen pairs to sort the good from the bad.

Soft data and month-end flows jolted the USD at its cycle highs. If the USD pulls back even slightly, it could help lift AUD/USD from its lows and track the yuan higher.

The bounce for the ASX nay end up being short lived, but price action suggests bulls might sneak in a 'last hurrah' over the near term. Meanwhile the China A50 continues to hold its ground and hint at a bounce of its own.

US data continues to outperform, with flash PMIs and jobless claims being the latest to shine. Yet despite soft PMIs from the EU and UK, the US dollar had its worst day of its recent surge, with MOF comments strengthening the yen to send USD/JPY lower.

The USD and yields continued to surge following the release of the Fed's beige book. That, alongside a fast-approaching and tight US election race, is prompting Wall Street traders to reassess their exposure. Yet the fallout on ASX 200 futures was limited, and while AUD/JPY might retrace lower we still have an initial target around 102.

Momentum is finally turning higher for AUD/JPY, having found support at the 200-day EMA and 100 handle. We think a move to 102 could is not on the cards. Alongside another dip lower for Nikkei futures.

With Trump leading in some polls and Fed members continuing to push back against a faster pace of easing, bond traders were quick to send yields and therefor the USD higher. USD/JPY now has 152 within sight.