FX

US jobless claims data will garner far more interest than usual later Thursday as traders assess whether last week’s unusually large increase was an anomaly or start of a new trend. Testing a key level on the charts, two-way risk created by the data makes GBP/USD a pair to keep on the radar.

With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.

Australian wage pressures undershot expectation in the March quarter, denting the prospect of another rate hike from the RBA. AUD/USD managed to shake off the news within seconds, underlining that US CPI mains the only game in town for traders on Wednesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 faces an important technical test today, pushing back to towards a resistance zone it’s been unable to break for weeks. With risk appetite rampant and softer yen helping to juice the earnings outlook for exporters, if bulls can’t reclaim the ascendancy today, when will they ever?

it’s now up to incoming data and news flow to continue fuelling the bullish USD narrative, otherwise it risks sparking a reversal. We may be seeing the inception of such a move in EUR/USD right now.

If you trade Asian currencies like the Japanese yen, Australian or New Zealand dollar, you should always keep a close eye on what’s happening in the Chinese yuan. You’re doing yourself a disservice if your not.

The latest NAB Business survey revealed a big slowdown in hiring in April, with new orders also declining at the fastest pace in several years. Importantly, the weakness coincided with a noticeable deceleration in up and downstream price pressures.

While that keeps the prospect of a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the table should inflationary pressures suddenly subside, for now, movements in NZD/USD continue to be dictated by sentiment on what the Federal Reserve may do with US interest rates in the months ahead.

EUR/USD looks tired ahead of key inflation and GDP data from the continent later Tuesday, struggling to hold the gains which took it to two-week highs on Friday.

The growth engine of the Chinese economy unexpectedly decelerated last month while Australian retail sales are growing at the weakest pace on record outside one-off economic shocks, putting AUD/USD under renewed pressure on Tuesday.

Japanese officials had been warning for months that speculative moves in the Japanese yen would not be tolerated without elaborating on what exactly constituted a ‘speculative’ move. We may have just been provided the answer.

If Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) was looking for a trigger to instruct the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene in currency markets, they were just provided a big one. Expect heightened near-term volatility in USD/JPY on Monday.

It’s not just AUD/USD and the RBA interest rate outlook that have been shaken up by Australia’s hot March quarter inflation report with the Australian dollar gaining sharply against the crosses, especially those currencies whose central banks are still expected to ease monetary policy this year.

If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.

Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.

Divergent economic and monetary policy outlooks for the US and UK continue to weigh on GBP/USD, making the case for downside a far easier sell than for upside right now.

Australians are none the wiser as to what’s happening in the domestic labour market with another volatile jobs report creating more questions than answers. AUD/USD is largely unmoved, leaving offshore factors to remain in the driving seat.