David Scutt
David Scutt
Market Analyst
Expertise: Macroeconomics/fundamentals, strategy, market education
Trading Style: Swing
Experience:
• Former FX spot, forwards and money markets securities dealer/trader with more than 10 years’ experience working in bank treasury
• Managing interest rate and liquidity risk
• Regularly featured in publications such as Reuters, Wall Street Journal and Australian Financial Review
• Ex markets and economics editor for Business Insider, covering macroeconomic and major market events in Asia
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USD/CNH, USD/JPY, AUD/USD: China’s spluttering economy weighs on Asian currencies
China’s fledgling economic recovery suffered another setback in April with activity indicators mostly disappointing, especially regarding the beleaguered property sector. The news weighed on the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Australian dollar.
Be cautious chasing COMEX copper higher with big bears lurking above $5
The upside in copper flagged last week has played out nicely, delivering a fresh contract high for the red metal on COMEX futures. However, the price action over the latter parts of this week has not been convincing, warning of growing near-term downside risk.
GBP/USD: Trade setups for today’s important US jobless claims update
US jobless claims data will garner far more interest than usual later Thursday as traders assess whether last week’s unusually large increase was an anomaly or start of a new trend. Testing a key level on the charts, two-way risk created by the data makes GBP/USD a pair to keep on the radar.
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Soft jobs report extinguishes risk of further RBA rate hikes
With unemployment spiking and broader measures of labour market slack increasing, the risk of strong wages growth sparking renewed inflationary pressures looks to have past.
It’s time to reassess the US dollar outlook
With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.
AUD/USD shrugs off soft wages report, attention shifts to US inflation print
Australian wage pressures undershot expectation in the March quarter, denting the prospect of another rate hike from the RBA. AUD/USD managed to shake off the news within seconds, underlining that US CPI mains the only game in town for traders on Wednesday.
Nikkei 225 faces crucial technical test as USD/JPY correlations go AWOL
Japan’s Nikkei 225 faces an important technical test today, pushing back to towards a resistance zone it’s been unable to break for weeks. With risk appetite rampant and softer yen helping to juice the earnings outlook for exporters, if bulls can’t reclaim the ascendancy today, when will they ever?
EUR/USD: High bar for US economic data creates asymmetric upside risks
it’s now up to incoming data and news flow to continue fuelling the bullish USD narrative, otherwise it risks sparking a reversal. We may be seeing the inception of such a move in EUR/USD right now.
USD/CNH: AUD, NZD, JPY face hammering if Asia’s FX anchor comes loose
If you trade Asian currencies like the Japanese yen, Australian or New Zealand dollar, you should always keep a close eye on what’s happening in the Chinese yuan. You’re doing yourself a disservice if your not.
AUD/USD: Cracks in Australia’s business outlook are starting to show
The latest NAB Business survey revealed a big slowdown in hiring in April, with new orders also declining at the fastest pace in several years. Importantly, the weakness coincided with a noticeable deceleration in up and downstream price pressures.
NZD/USD: New Zealand economic downturn worsening ahead of key RBNZ inflation survey
While that keeps the prospect of a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the table should inflationary pressures suddenly subside, for now, movements in NZD/USD continue to be dictated by sentiment on what the Federal Reserve may do with US interest rates in the months ahead.