Seasonal analysis
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AUD/USD plunges to 2-year low, Santa’s rally faces cancellation
AUD/USD plunged alongside Wall Street indices following the Fed's last meeting of the year. And if Santa’s rally is to kick in at all this year, it could be to pick up some of the crumbs left during yesterday’s volatile selloff.
USD/JPY, gold, S&P 500 analysis: How markets have traded around Fed decisions
The USD has remained supported on expectations of a considerably-less dovish Fed. But with 'Fed day' generally being bearish for the dollar alongside its tendency to selloff into the year end, I have an inkling we're heading towards a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" for the USD.
USD/CHF analysis: Does this head and shoulders have legs?
A classic bearish reversal pattern has emerged on USD/CHF, during a month usually associated with USD losses. But that doesn’t mean this reversal is a slam dunk for bears.
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S&P 500 Melt-Up? The Data-Driven Case for SPX Upside in December
What are the odds of a Deecember melt up in the S&P 500?
The US dollar, seasonality and what that could mean for December
While it is well documented that the USD tends to suffer in December, the dynamics of Trump at the helm alongside another important FOMC meeting could give seasonality a run for its money. But regardless of which way the dollar travels this month, there is a clear intra-month pattern that is worth factoring in to the equation.
Forex Seasonality – December 2024: Can EUR/USD and AUD/USD Rally?
EUR/USD and AUD/USD are heading into their strongest month, hinting at rally potential after November drops.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Can seasonality save the Aussie?
AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.
Why I’m not relying on seasonal trends to rescue gold in December
Q4 tends to be bullish for gold, and November one of its most bullish months of the year. Yet seasonality has not met bullish plans these past few weeks, and it may not as we enter December either.
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