BoJ

Traders are now pricing in 50/50 odds for both a BOJ rate hike and a Fed rate cut in December, setting USD/JPY up for volatility around key economic reports.

USD/JPY may further retrace the decline from the yearly high (161.95) as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda insists that ‘monetary policy will continue to firmly support economic activity.’

USDJPY, Silver Forecast: The US Dollar’s rally has pushed the yen to levels increasing Bank of Japan intervention risks and pressured silver to retest a critical yearly trendline, raising caution over potential further upward movements in the dollar.

USDJPY Forecast: The bull run of the US Dollar Index has pushed the USDJPY back in the borders of its primary uptrend, and further volatility risks are on the horizon with the US CPI results.

USDJPY Forecast: Bearish pressures on the yen have amplified following Japan's first political shift in 15 years. With the yen’s current weakness, heightened volatility is expected ahead of the BOJ policy decision, US elections, and the Fed rate decision.

USD/JPY has rallied more than 1,000 pips since mid-September, helped along by a surge in the 2yr yield spread between the US and Japan...but can it build on those gains from here?

USDJPY Forecast: The DXY’s weakness is set to face a key test this week with the release of leading US economic indicators and non-farm payroll reports. Both the DXY and USDJPY are approaching critical support levels, one step away from a decline towards the July 2023 lows.

USD/JPY may further retrace the decline from the monthly high (147.21) as it climbs a fresh weekly high (145.22).

USDJPY Outlook: With Tokyo’s Core CPI reaching 2024 highs and key economic data from the US on the horizon, the USDJPY chart is positioned for either intensified bearish pressures or a potential hold above the critical 140 barrier.

USDJPY Outlook: Japan’s national core CPI has surged back near its 2024 highs, paving the way for potential further rate hikes, given the alignment of economic data with BOJ forecasts. Meanwhile, the upcoming outlook from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium could either reinforce or counter the current bearish sentiment on the dollar.

A confirmed break above the 149.50 barrier on USD/JPY could open the door for a steeper bounce toward the 50% retracement near 152.00 next

The technical bias in USD/JPY will remain to the upside as long as it remains above the 146.00 level.

Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), says the bank won’t hike interest rates when markets are unstable, delivering a clear message on what traders need to do to prevent them doing so again: create volatility.

Wednesday was a day of divergent policies that saw the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hike rates more than expected and the Fed signal a cut. And that saw the US dollar and yen broadly move their separate ways.

The Japanese yen is behaving like a classic risk-on-risk-off currency again, often moving in line with other risker asset classes. With interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed), along with earnings from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon to navigate, it promises to be another volatile week for USD/JPY again.

USDJPY Forecast: the anticipation of a tighter monetary policy at the next BOJ meeting has dominated oversold pressures on the USDJPY. Is there a reversal on the horizon?

Harris replacing Biden may not be a radical overhaul where policies are concerned, but it has certainly brought the Democrat’s prospects for maintaining power back from the brink of death. From a market perspective, it means Trump is no longer a ‘walk in’ President, and political headlines from the US are no longer driving sentiment for now. Thankfully, we have intertest rate decisions from the FOMC, BOE and BOJ to drive sentiment, along with NFP and Australia’s CPI report for good measure.