AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

Trump's tariffs and divergent monetary-policy expectations between the RBA and Fed are weighing on AUD/USD. But whether it can hold above the January low could come down to whether USD/CNH breaks above its 2022 high.

Wednesday’s inflation figures are the standout event for RBA watchers, as it could decide whether the RBA pull the trigger and cut rates in February. But if they fail to confirm the dovish excitement generated from the monthly report, AUD/USD runs the risk of a short-covering rally.

The correlations between AUD/USD, the yuan and USD remain in play. But with the latter two stalling at important resistance levels, perhaps AUD/USD could achieve a bounce.

Another strong NFP report sent AUD/USD to a 4-year low on Friday, which was already under pressure following renewed bets of RBA cuts thanks to a soft CPI print for Australia. AU jobs and US CPI are the key data points for Aussie traders this week.

Of the several central bank meetings lined up this week, it is the FOMC meeting which is the most likely to directly impact AUD/USD. And anything short of a dovish surprise could see the Aussie continue lower through 63c.

AUD/USD finds itself at a 13-month low after suffering its worst week in 19. Strong US data has propelled the USD higher while the Aussie also continues to track the Chinese yuan lower. A break of a key trendline from the 2022 low seems probable.

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.

Soft US inflation data saw AUD/USD reach a 19-month high of 0.6930 and mark its first weekly close above 69c since February 2023.

AUD/USD is hinting at a breakout ahead of the weekend. But whether it can hold on to any breakout gains (should they arrive) may be down to next week's RBA meeting and US inflation report.

AUD/USD snapped a 2-week losing streak and was up against all FX majors, except the Japanese yen. The bias remains to seek dips tis week.

Appetite for risk (or lack thereof) remained a key driver for AUD/USD last week, sending the pair lower for a second week and earning its spot as the weakest currency of the week.

August was the strongest month of the year for AUD/USD, yet it also just snapped a 3-week winning streak below resistance, and shows the potential to retrace further from here before its bullish trend is anticipated to resume.

A dovish Powell at Jackson hole sealed the deal for risk to rally and help AUD/USD notch up a third bullish week. Attention now turns to inflation data from the US and Australia.

AUD/USD rose for a second week, and it was also the strongest FX major of the week. With momentum on good terms with bulls, they may be looking to buy dips in anticipation of a break above 67c.

The late-week recovery which saw AUD/USD break a 3-week losing streak was impressive, given the 170-pip plunge we were treated to last Monday. We're now looking for dips and a break above its 200-day average.

Two RBA speeches and a monetary policy decision along with updated RBA forecasts are the highlights of the week for AUD/USD traders on the domestic front. Although risk-off tones and an ISM services report could prove to be the bigger drivers.