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AUD/USD, NZD/USD: Commodity FX lead the way amid mild risk-on bounce
Given that commodity currencies such as AUD/NZD and NZD/USD have succumbed to USD strength for the best part of four months, the idea of a correction may not be overdue. Add into the mix bullish divergences on net-short exposure and false break of key lows, perhaps one is already underway.
Forex Seasonality – February 2025: Trade War to “Trump” Seasonality?
The budding trade war and developments on the tariff front could well outweigh the modest historical seasonal tendencies in February for forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Threat of Trade War
AUD/USD tumbles to a fresh yearly low (0.6088) as the upcoming change in US trade policy dampens the outlook for growth in Asia/Pacific economies.
VIX shorts rose to 6-month high ahead of Trump tariffs: COT report
Some bullish fingers have likely been burned at this week's open, given the relatively bullish positioning on S&P 500 futures alongside short bets against the VIX rising to a 6-month high last week.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Make or break for AUD, CNH around key levels
Trump's tariffs and divergent monetary-policy expectations between the RBA and Fed are weighing on AUD/USD. But whether it can hold above the January low could come down to whether USD/CNH breaks above its 2022 high.
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Rejected at Resistance
Australian Dollar is resting at key support as the bears attempt a sixth weekly decline- NFPs on tap. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Inflation Miss Sets Stage for First RBA Rate Cut Since 2020
Cooling inflation pressures have reignited speculation of an RBA rate cut, marking a potential shift in Australia’s monetary policy landscape. AUD/USD tests key support as ASX 200 SPI futures eye record highs.
AUD/USD knocked lower for a second day heading into key inflation report
Today's quarterly inflation figures for Australia could be the difference between the RBA cutting rates or standing pat at their next meeting. And with market pricing a cut in, we need a soft trimmed-mean to avoid short-covering rebound on AUD/USD.
AUD/USD Susceptible to Negative Slope in 50-Day SMA
AUD/USD holds below the 50-Day SMA (0.6327) as it extends the decline from the start of the week.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Quarterly CPI to decide on Feb cut
Wednesday’s inflation figures are the standout event for RBA watchers, as it could decide whether the RBA pull the trigger and cut rates in February. But if they fail to confirm the dovish excitement generated from the monthly report, AUD/USD runs the risk of a short-covering rally.
AUD/USD: Stuck in Limbo as Traders Brace for BoJ and Trump Twists
AUD/USD drifts in a tight range as traders weigh Trump’s tariff games and a pivotal BoJ decision. With momentum indicators flashing bullish signals, will a breakout finally take hold, or is another Trump twist looming to spark turmoil?
AUD/USD Recovery Stalls Ahead of Monthly High
AUD/USD holds below the monthly high (0.6302) as it struggles to extend the advance from the start of the week.
Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Breakout Looms
Australian Dollar surged 2.6% off the lows with the bulls poised for a breakout of the January range. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts.
AUD/USD joins the yuan for the ride, though FX volatility cuts both ways
It has been a volatile week for FX traders so far this week, and one which has benefitted AUD/USD and yuan bulls. While both could extend their moves if US-Sino relations remain as warm as they first appear, traders would also be wise to remember volatility cuts both ways. Especially when Trump is waving his executive-order pen around.
AUD/USD, EUR/USD, Hang Seng Futures: Sustainable Breakout or Bull Trap?
Trade tensions ease as tariff threats pause, fuelling sharp rallies in AUD/USD, EUR/USD and Hang Seng futures. But with US markets shut and liquidity thin, is this breakout a reliable signal or a classic bull trap?
COT report – 20 Jan 2025
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: The Aussie snaps a 6-week losing streak
The correlations between AUD/USD, the yuan and USD remain in play. But with the latter two stalling at important resistance levels, perhaps AUD/USD could achieve a bounce.
AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Struggle to Push Above Weekly High
AUD/USD no longer carves a series of higher highs and lows as it struggles to push above the weekly high (0.6247).
AUD/USD: Jobs Data Bolsters Range Test as RBA Rate Cut Bets Ease
AUD/USD edges higher as a strong jobs report questions the need for RBA rate cuts. Could this be the spark for a breakout, or will resistance keep the Aussie in check?
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Halts Four-Day Selloff
AUD/USD rebounds from a fresh monthly low (0.6131) to pull the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back from oversold territory.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: 4-year low heading into US CPI and AU jobs
Another strong NFP report sent AUD/USD to a 4-year low on Friday, which was already under pressure following renewed bets of RBA cuts thanks to a soft CPI print for Australia. AU jobs and US CPI are the key data points for Aussie traders this week.
Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Bears Grind at Support
Australian Dollar is resting at key support as the bears attempt a sixth weekly decline- NFPs on tap. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
Australian Dollar Technical Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY
AUD/USD was just ten pips away from a fresh four year low last week. But sellers held .6300 resistance and the big question is whether they can punch through support.