Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Will NVDA’s Earnings Prick the AI Bubble?

Nasdaq 100 Key Points

• NVDA has “beat” analyst estimates for earnings in seven of the last eight quarters by an overall average of 15%, rising an average of more than 9% in response to those results
• Implied volatility on options suggesting that we could see a +/- 9% move in response to Nvidia’s earnings report.
• Short-term NDX bulls are unlikely to feel comfortable rejoining the trend unless/until the index recaptures the 20,750 level that marks the previous record highs from July

When are Nvidia’s Earnings?

Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, November 20 after the market close.

What are Nvidia’s Earnings Expectations

Analysts expect Nvidia to report $0.74 in EPS on $33B in revenue.

Nvidia Earnings Preview

Nvidia’s stock has gone up roughly 10X since the start of 2023 alone as demand for its semiconductors has gone parabolic. The AI darling is running neck-and-neck with Microsoft to be the most valuable publicly-traded company by market capitalization, and this week’s earnings report will likely determine the leader heading into the end of the year.

Now that the rest of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks have reported mostly strong earnings (albeit with relatively lackluster reactions in the underlying stocks), the big question on traders’ minds is whether Nvidia can continue to deliver exceptional results. As the graphic below shows, NVDA has “beat” analyst estimates for earnings in seven of the last eight quarters by an overall average of 15%. The company has likewise beat analyst revenue expectations in each of the last eight quarters by an overall average of 8%, with the stock rising an average of more than +9% in response to those results:

Source: Bloomberg

Heading into the week’s release, traders are expecting a move in line with the recent post-earnings reactions, with the implied volatility on options suggesting that we could see a +/- 9% move in response to Nvidia’s earnings report, a truly staggering move in a $3.4T stock.

What to Watch in Nvidia’s Earnings

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has mastered the art of underpromising and overdelivering when it comes to financial results but the consequence of a track record of earnings “beats” is that the so-called “whisper numbers” that traders start to anticipate rise above the widely-reported analyst expectations. In other words, even if Nvidia reports marginally better figures than the expectations outlined above, the stock may still struggle given traders’ sky-high expectations.

Nvidia's guidance for the upcoming quarter (Q4 2025) will be just as significant as the backward-looking results from the most recent quarter. The market, forward-looking by nature, will dissect any signals that suggest sales growth may outpace current consensus projections, providing new momentum for bullish sentiment. Huang’s post-earnings remarks will be equally critical, as he outlines the company’s progress, the rollout of the Blackwell series and other GPUs, and potential innovations in development.

Gross margins remain under the microscope for market participants. Q3 2025 gross margins are forecasted to dip to 75% even, with a potential decline to 73% anticipated in the subsequent quarters. While such margins are still objectively and enviably high, the market’s expectations are elevated, making it crucial for Nvidia to demonstrate margin stability or increased sales volume as a counterbalance.

The question of whether margins are on a permanent downward trend or can recover remains uncertain. Regulatory risks pose a challenge, as does heightened competition, potentially forcing Nvidia to adjust its pricing strategy. On a brighter note, as supply issues surrounding Blackwell GPUs begin to ease, sales growth may accelerate, creating an opportunity for margins to rebound to around 75% in Q2 2026.

Nvidia Technical Analysis – NVDA Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX

As we go to press, NVDA is pulling back from last week’s record highs near the $150 level. The stock may be breaking down from its near-term bullish channel, but the longer-term chart remains undeniably bullish as long as prices remain above the 50-day MA near $134. To the topside, the $150 level would mark a reasonable initial target for bulls if Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations, whereas previous-resistance-turned-support at $130 sets up as a logical first downside target if Huang’s magic finally runs out.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis – NDX Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX

The broader Nasdaq 100 has benefited from investors insatiable appetite for AI stocks broadly and NVDA’s surge in particular, but like the chipmaker itself, the Nasdaq 100 is down from last week’s post-election highs. In the immediate term, short-term bulls are unlikely to feel comfortable rejoining the trend unless/until the index recaptures the 20,750 level that marks the previous record highs from July. Meanwhile, a break below the 50-day MA near 20,200 could herald a deeper drop toward at least the mid-19,000s as traders re-evaluate the health of the AI bubble.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX