Commodities Market

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil faces volatility risks ahead of the OPEC meeting, now rescheduled for Wednesday to accommodate all members and avoid a clash with the Gulf Summit. Sideways price movements persist, leaning towards a bearish bias for 2025.

Gold analysis: After the big sell-off on Monday, I will try to examine what this means for gold in terms of direction in the near-term outlook, purely from a technical point of view.

How could a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire impact oil prices and what are the key levels to watch?

While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil’s 4-year support level has amplified its importance as supply disruption risks rise again amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, OPEC’s upcoming meeting on Sunday could reshape production quotas and influence market dynamics.

Can silver and copper hold their ground, or are sharper declines on the horizon? The price action suggests a resumption of the bearish trend could be in the cards.

Gold and silver prices are bouncing back, fuelled by easing pressure from lower US Treasury yields and a softer US dollar. But can the move build into something greater? Here’s what’s driving the price action and the setups worth watching.

Long bets and speculative volumes crept higher on JPY futures, while gross-longs on AUD futures increased at the fastest pace in nine years. Bullish signs are also apparent on crude oil futures, and we suspect gold bulls may want to tread with caution going forward.

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Oil prices face uncertainty as OPEC's potential December output hike awaits support in Wednesday's meeting. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions and political assassinations heighten concerns of a regional conflict.

There has been a lot of hype over a dovish Fed, for quite some time. Yet asset managers (real money accounts) remain net long. I suspect we're a lot closer to the end of the USD bear case than the beginning.

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

Even though lower borrowing costs and a weaker US dollar would normally boost the gold price, in the near-term, rate cuts – be they big or small – may deliver a bust for bullion bulls.

Crude Oil Update: Bearish pressures have driven oil prices back below the $70 barrier, erasing 2024 gains. This drop follows weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI results from China and the US, coupled with the risk of increased output. Will there be another intervention?

Having broken key support on the back of big volumes, WTI crude oil may need to reverse quickly to limit the risk of even greater downside ahead. With market focus squarely on economic activity in the world’s largest crude consumer, the United States, upcoming data on the health of the labour market could spark a meaningful move in the days ahead.

Traders flipped to net-short USD exposure last week for the first time since February. Yet asset managers and large speculators remains net-long the USD index.

Crude Oil Outlook: As we step into the anticipated rate cut month, the positive market sentiment may have already been priced in, with OPEC policies looming on the horizon and heavily influencing oil prices. The key question remains: Will oil break out of its 1-year consolidation this month?