Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson
Market Analyst
Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment
Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend
Experience:
• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore
• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education
• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)
FollowSort by:
- Newest
- Popular
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY forecast: AUD on track for tightest weekly range this century
We still have two full trading days to wake AUD/USD up from its lull but, as things stand, it's on track for its smallest weekly range this century. Barring a dire jobs report, (small) dips appear favourable for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.
The RBNZ deliver another 50bp cut, AUD/NZD eyes breakout
The RBNZ's cash rate is now 35bp above the RBA's - its highest spread in 12 years. We're now eyeing a potential breakout on AUD/NZD, once the obligatory bull-traps which tends to plague forex markets plays out.
The ASX 200 tries to lull bears into its trap while S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 tease new highs
While the ASX shows the potential to dip further, I remain wary that we’ll see an immediate bearish follow through while Wall Street teases new record highs.
USD/CAD holds support heading into CPI, but 1.40 remains achievable
USD/CAD is showing signs of stability after two weeks of heavy selling. But with traders shying away from CAD shorts and USD longs with the potential for tariffs to not fully come to fruition, a move down to 1.4000 remains feasible.
USD/JPY bears eye break of 151 as GDP bolsters hawkish-BOJ bets
Japan's Q4 GDP is the latest to data to outperform estimates and, through the lens of CESI (Cit Economic Surprise Index), Japan's data is also outperforming its peers. While USD/JPY is considering a break of 151, I'm on guard for a false break before the real move to 150 materialises.
Bullish-yen bets surge at record pace, USD outflows continue: COT report
63k long yen contracts last week between large speculators and asset managers, marking the fastest weekly pace of longs on record for both sets of traders. And with traders also shying away from bullish USD bets, it paints a bearish picture for USD/JPY.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: AUD/NZD Implied vols rise into RBA, RBNZ
The RBA and RBNZ are expected to cut their cash rates this week, though the 50bp RBNZ cut should see their interest rate drop back beneath the RBA's. This has seen implied volatility for AUD/NZD move higher.
CAD, AUD look set to benefit as the USD bull case becomes unhinged
If the mighty US dollar fails to rally on what is usually a sure-bullish bet, then it may not take much to send it lower. Market positioning has already sent such clues, and price action this week continues to suggest a correction could be underway.
Best day of the year for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY on hot CPI, peace talks
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine alongside a hot set of US inflation figures were the winning combo for USD/JPY and EUR/JPY bulls, both of which posted their most bullish days of the year.
GBP/USD, GBP/JPY look set to extend their bounce (to various degrees)
A weaker US dollar and Japanese yen has allowed GBP/USD and GBP/JPY to regain some lost ground. And both pairs can likely build upon these early gains, GBP/USD could be the outperformer.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY mean revert higher as yen bulls loosen their grip
A slight risk-on tone weakened the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Tuesday on news from around Ukraine and Russia, while Powell subtly hinted that hikes are not off the table during his testimony to the House. And this saw USD/JPY and JPY, along with other yen pairs, recoup some of last week's losses.