A review of the week past and the week ahead 16th of November

What mattered last week:

• The S&P500 closed up 2.32% for the week, at new record highs following positive progress on developing a COVID19 vaccine.
• Supported by further clarity on the result of the US Presidential election.
• Despite the acceleration in new COVID19 cases across much of the world.
• Leading to lockdowns in Europe, and a tightening of restrictions in some U.S. states.
• Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, fell again to 23.1.
• U.S. 10-year yields closed 8bp higher near 0.90%.
• Gold closed $60 lower near $1889.00.
• Crude oil closed 8% higher near $40.13/bbl.
• The ASX200 closed 3.5% higher at 6405.2, following the lead from offshore equity markets.
• In FX, the AUDUSD closed mostly unchanged near .7270.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: RBA Governor Lowe Speech (Monday), RBA meeting minutes (Tuesday), RBA Governor Lowe Speech and wage price index (Wednesday), labour force (Thursday), retail sales (Friday).

• Labour force (Thursday): The expectation is for a 30k drop in jobs in October, and the unemployment rate to rise to 7.2%. However, the market is expected to look through this weakness, given the expectation of a stronger number in November, following the easing of lockdown restrictions in Victoria.

New Zealand: Global dairy auction and PPI (Wednesday).

China: House price index, employment, fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production (Friday).

Japan: Q3 GDP (Monday), balance of trade (Wednesday), CPI, and Jibun PMI’s (Friday).

• Q3 GDP (Monday): GDP is expected to rise by 4.4% in Q3 following a -7.9% contraction in Q2.

U.S: Retail sales, industrial production (Tuesday), housing starts and building permits (Wednesday), jobless claims, and home sales (Thursday).

A host of Fed speakers will be on the wires including Daly, Williams, Bostic, Bullard, and Williams.

Canada: CPI (Wednesday), retail sales (Friday).

Euro Area: EU leaders meeting (Thursday).

UK: CPI (Wednesday), Gfk consumer confidence, and retail sales (Friday).