David Scutt
David Scutt
Market Analyst
Expertise: Macroeconomics/fundamentals, strategy, market education
Trading Style: Swing
Experience:
• Former FX spot, forwards and money markets securities dealer/trader with more than 10 years’ experience working in bank treasury
• Managing interest rate and liquidity risk
• Regularly featured in publications such as Reuters, Wall Street Journal and Australian Financial Review
• Ex markets and economics editor for Business Insider, covering macroeconomic and major market events in Asia
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USD/JPY: Toppy US bond yields, BOJ intervention threat mean the game has changed
The suspected intervention from the BOJ this week has changed the game for USD/JPY, placing a rather large barrier in the way of further upside at a time when US bond yields were already looking toppy.
WTI crude oil forecast: Key moment looms with bullish uptrend under threat
WTI crude was looking suspect even before Wednesday’s significant swoon, leaving the price teetering on key uptrend support dating back to the Fed’s rate cut pivot in December. Should it give way, there’s not standing between a larger flush to the mid-$70 per barrel region.
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: New Zealand recession is hammering the jobs market, inflation next
New Zealand’s unemployment rate jumps more than expected despite a collapse in labour force participation, putting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand closer to cutting interest rates before the US Federal Reserve. NZD/USD fell sharply while AUD/NZD rose to new cycle highs.
EUR/USD price action warns of downside risk ahead of key inflation and growth data
EUR/USD looks tired ahead of key inflation and GDP data from the continent later Tuesday, struggling to hold the gains which took it to two-week highs on Friday.
AUD/USD suffers bearish blow from softer China PMIs, ugly Australian retail sales miss
The growth engine of the Chinese economy unexpectedly decelerated last month while Australian retail sales are growing at the weakest pace on record outside one-off economic shocks, putting AUD/USD under renewed pressure on Tuesday.
USD/JPY: Japan provides a big hint on what may prompt further BOJ yen intervention
Japanese officials had been warning for months that speculative moves in the Japanese yen would not be tolerated without elaborating on what exactly constituted a ‘speculative’ move. We may have just been provided the answer.
USD/JPY: Japan was just given every excuse to trigger BOJ intervention
If Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) was looking for a trigger to instruct the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene in currency markets, they were just provided a big one. Expect heightened near-term volatility in USD/JPY on Monday.
Australian dollar setups following hot inflation print: AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD
It’s not just AUD/USD and the RBA interest rate outlook that have been shaken up by Australia’s hot March quarter inflation report with the Australian dollar gaining sharply against the crosses, especially those currencies whose central banks are still expected to ease monetary policy this year.
AUD/USD surges on uncomfortably high inflation update as RBA rate cut bets evaporate
AUD/USD is charging higher, powered by a hotter-than-expected Australian March quarter consumer price inflation report that has seriously dented the case for rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year.
US dollar stumble a tremor before the true FX earthquake hits
If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grey-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.
Gold, silver: Buying the dip needs a health warning given heavy price action
The bigger the rally the harder the fall? Traders dabbling in the precious metals space may be asking that exact question with gold and silver extending their losses on Tuesday after a brutal start to the week.