China

Crude Oil Forecast: The December 2021 support level remains a key factor amid shifting data on US inventories, Middle East conflicts and ceasefire hopes, economic indicators, and supply quotas. Will it hold through 2024?

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil wrapped up the third week of October with a sharp 9% loss, driven by weaker Chinese economic data and reduced concerns about oil supply disruptions. Looking ahead, key events between Chinese policies, BRICS, and PMIs are expected to influence crude oil’s trajectory in the coming week.

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude oil is currently hovering around the $70 mark, caught between bearish momentum driven by a declining demand outlook and supply disruption risks, particularly in the Middle East.

China’s A50 index is mirroring the 2014-2015 surge, the last time policymakers enacted coordinated fiscal/monetary/macroprudential stimulus measures - what does that mean moving forward?

Crude Oil Forecast: Oil market volatility is expected next week with Powell’s economic outlook and crude oil inventory updates.

With support in place and momentum trying to turn higher, we’re now looking for additional gains on the China A50 and Hang Seng.

US data steps away from the limelight to make way for inflation reports from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan. And throw in an ECB meeting, Australian employment report and the CCP's Third Plenum for good measure.

China’s major stock market indices have been falling since the middle of May. With little in the way of a decent bounce higher, I continue to suspect one could be due.

China’s state-endorsed equity market recovery continues to go from strength to strength, building upon a lengthy and growing list of measures being rolled out by policymakers designed to coerce traders into buying. Perhaps the broader bear market trend may be coming to an end?

A bearish reversal pattern has formed on USD/CNH which implies a move down to 7.10. And if the yuan continues to strengthen, it could see the yen follow and scupper USD/JPY attempt at breaking 152.

Hang Seng futures don’t look like they’re about to embark on a face-ripping rally, no matter how cheap valuations are and no matter how much government encouragement is doled out.

China’s “National Team”, the nickname given to state-backed entities tasked with rescuing markets, are doubling their efforts, upping purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) while restricting certain undesirable activities detrimental to stock prices. So far, indices such as the A50 are rallying.

There is a real confidence problem right now towards China. And while the underlying reasons are complex, the easiest way to change the prevailing bearish narrative is for the price action to turnaround. Price leads narrative.

The US dollar and yen were the weakest FX majors during the Asian session, following reports of China stimulus and no change in policy from the BOJ. GBP/JPY has probed a key resistance level and crude oil shows the potential to extend yesterday's gains.

Chinese economic activity is nearing stall speed with the government’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) falling further in November, surprising markets to the downside for a second consecutive month.

Activity levels in China’s economy look to be slowly picking up, providing relief for cyclical assets amidst a deteriorating macro backdrop due to events in Gaza. That's helping boost CNH and China's A50 share index.

The tentative rebound in the AUD/USD faces its next hurdle today with the release of China’s monthly ‘data dump’, including Q3 GDP.