Gold

Following the release of more disappointing US data, silver now looks poised to hit that key $30 level and potentially rise far beyond that level, if the recent gains by gold and copper are anything to go by.

How is the metal likely to react to today’s CPI data? Well, it may not be quite straight forward as I have explained in this article. CPI is expected to have moderated in April to 3.4% y/y from 3.5% previously.

Today’s 1% drop in gold prices appears to be driven by profit-taking, as it comes amid a quiet day for data and follows a decent 2.5% rally last week. However, our gold forecast remains bullish, with the precious metal potentially heading towards its third consecutive month of gains.

The stronger US dollar has acted as a handbrake on commodity prices, limiting what may have been otherwise a spectacular rebound to start 2024. Imagine what may happen if the dollar were to break down?

The US dollar snapped its 3-day winning streak and formed a bearish outside day, helping gold reach our upside target. EUR/USD and AUD/USD are now eyeing a move towards key resistance levels.

The greenback was higher again at the time of writing, which partly explains the earlier weakness in metals prices. Despite that, though, gold and silver recovered from their earlier weaknesses along with equity indices once US investors entered the fray.

GBP/USD could extend its losses despite the US dollar 'rebound' already losing steam, whilst gold's base looks set for a bullish breakout and USD/JPY might achieve another leg higher before it tops. In my opinion, at least.

Silver breaks bull flag resistance trend to signal potential trend resumption following the big rally in early last month.

There seems to be no fear in shorting then yen, given large speculators pushed net-short exposure to the second highest level on record last week. EUR/USD and GBP/USD also flipped to net-short exposure.

Gold outlook remains fundamentally supported in the long term as discussed in this article. In the short-term, traders are awaiting the release of US GDP and Core PCE data this week, ahead of NFP next week. Meanwhile, technical analysis shows the metal is finding some renewed support around its 21-day exponential average.

Has gold selling already or nearly done? Gold remains fundamentally supported in the long term, although there is room for further correction. Gold technical analysis shows prices are no longer as overbought as a couple of weeks ago.

The bigger the rally the harder the fall? Traders dabbling in the precious metals space may be asking that exact question with gold and silver extending their losses on Tuesday after a brutal start to the week.

There has been a shakeup at the top for gold, which opened the week at the high and closed the day at the low during its worst day in two years. We also look at a potential swing trade long on WTI crude oil.

EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.

The inverse relationship between bond yields and US dollar with the gold price has broken down in 2024, meaning technicals and inflation expectations are arguably a more important driver right now.

Gold outlook remains steady, for now, even as Iran has downplayed the impact of Israel strikes. The focus turns to sticky inflation and elevated interest rates narrative, as overbought gold hardly shows any signs of a bearish reversal yet.

WTI crude oil was up over 4% during the Asian session on reports that Israel’s middles had struck a site in Iran, further fans fears of a broader-scaled war in the middle East.