Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson
Market Analyst
Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment
Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend
Experience:
• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore
• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education
• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Can seasonality save the Aussie?
AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.
The stats are working against bitcoin bulls today
Bitcoin futures followed their seasonal tendency to rally on Thanksgiving Day. And pattern is to hold true today, it could be set for a down day as we veer into the weekend.
ASX hits record high in thin trade, but double top clouds the outlook
ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) were allowed to print a fresh record high on a daily-close basis. Yet 8500 remains a clear level of resistance, and one which prompted a potential bearish reversal pattern.
With Wall Street bucking its Thanksgiving trend, the ASX could struggle
Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.
2025 could be one heck of a ride if bearish AUD/JPY clues are correct
As AUD/JPY is a classic barometer of risk, we should take note that all is not looking well around current levels. And if AUD/JPY tanks, it’s likely to be followed by risk in general.
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: RBNZ to mull dovish cut in face of tariffs, Trump 2.0
The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.
AUD slammed on Trump tariffs, even though we’ve seen this movie before
True to his campaign promise, Trump is playing hardball with tariffs. But will he deliver, or is this simply a classic Trump-bargaining chip? Regardless, AUD/USD is getting caught up in the headlines.
Yields, gold slump on Trump Treasury pick, ceasefire deal
It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.
Yen futures gain bullish traction, bears weigh on EUR/USD: COT report
While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: With speculative vols rising, a low may have been seen
AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.
USD regains bullish stride, EUR/USD and USD/JPY look set to converge
The USD index defied the 3-day retracement that dared to defy its bullish trend and now appears on the cusp of a breakout. While this could signify EUR/USD dropping below 105, it may also equate to a bullish breakout on USD/JPY.