Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson
Market Analyst
Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment
Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend
Experience:
• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore
• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education
• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)
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AUD/USD, NZD/USD: Commodity FX lead the way amid mild risk-on bounce
Given that commodity currencies such as AUD/NZD and NZD/USD have succumbed to USD strength for the best part of four months, the idea of a correction may not be overdue. Add into the mix bullish divergences on net-short exposure and false break of key lows, perhaps one is already underway.
Gold and copper prices could be set to converge
With gold making hard work of record highs while copper perks up from its cycle lows, I'm looking for the two to converge over the near term.
Expansive ISM, hot GDP estimate leaves no wriggle room for Fed doves
You’ll be forgiven for not realising that economic data was released on Monday, amid the influx of trade war headlines. But if US growth estimates and manufacturing are anything to go by, we’re in for another hot ISM services print later this week.
VIX shorts rose to 6-month high ahead of Trump tariffs: COT report
Some bullish fingers have likely been burned at this week's open, given the relatively bullish positioning on S&P 500 futures alongside short bets against the VIX rising to a 6-month high last week.
Wall Street gaps lower, ASX under pressure following Trump’s tariffs
It has been another turbulent start to the week for Wal Street and ASX 200 futures, as traders react to Trump's tariffs.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Make or break for AUD, CNH around key levels
Trump's tariffs and divergent monetary-policy expectations between the RBA and Fed are weighing on AUD/USD. But whether it can hold above the January low could come down to whether USD/CNH breaks above its 2022 high.
USD/CAD spikes to 5-year high as Trump's tariffs come knocking
Well, Trump's tariffs are not going away. In fact, they're on Canada's doorstep. And that was enough to send USD/CAD to a 5-year high late in the day on Thursday, which only adds to the excitement of month end flows and messy price action.
USD/JPY, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY: Key levels heading into US GDP
If my short bias for USD/CAD and long for USD/JPY come into play, it assumes CAD/JPY could outperform USD/JPY during a bout of yen weakness.
ASX 200 analysis: I’m not banking on a record high despite softer CPI
The ASX 200 index is eyeing a record high. But with SPI 200 futures dragging its heels below resistance looms and the Fed unlikely to cut soon, an immediate breakout is not on my horizon. Even though an eventual breakout seems inevitable.
AUD/USD knocked lower for a second day heading into key inflation report
Today's quarterly inflation figures for Australia could be the difference between the RBA cutting rates or standing pat at their next meeting. And with market pricing a cut in, we need a soft trimmed-mean to avoid short-covering rebound on AUD/USD.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Quarterly CPI to decide on Feb cut
Wednesday’s inflation figures are the standout event for RBA watchers, as it could decide whether the RBA pull the trigger and cut rates in February. But if they fail to confirm the dovish excitement generated from the monthly report, AUD/USD runs the risk of a short-covering rally.