US-Russia-Ukraine Tensions Lift Oil and Gold

Key Events:

• Trump announces 25% tariffs on automobiles, chips, and drug imports until a Ukraine deal is reached.
• U.S.-Russia sanctions continue until a peace agreement is settled, lifting hedging demand for oil.
• Gold is at a crossroads between a potential triple market top or a breakout toward $3,000.
• Oil holds steady above $70, reinforcing key technical levels.

Latest Developments on the Russia-Ukraine Deal

Markets are now witnessing how Trump leverages tariffs to advance both economic and political agreements. His latest tariff announcement on auto, drug, and chip exports, combined with his firm stance on Russian sanctions, has put markets on edge. Commodities are reacting to the uncertainty, with the potential for further upside.

The tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, leaving a window for negotiations, yet keeping market sentiment cautious. Gold is testing record highs near $2,940 per ounce for the third time, presenting a key technical scenario—either a triple top reversal or a breakout toward $3,000.

OPEC Hints at Production Cut Extensions Beyond April

Beyond gold and geopolitical risks, oil’s upside hedging demand is re-emerging. The combination of U.S.-Russia sanctions and OPEC’s potential extension of production cuts beyond April is adding further bullish momentum to crude prices. While Trump’s upcoming tariffs in March and April may generate short-lived upside pressure, traders are positioning for uncertain impacts stemming from a mix of sanctions, tariffs, and geopolitical instability.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Crude Oil Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Upside risks in oil are driving prices back toward the $73 zone. A clean close above $73 could extend bullish momentum toward $76.30, $78.30, and $80. However, if oil drops below $72, bearish targets shift toward $70, $68.80, and $66. For now, oil remains range-bound, with key boundary levels limiting price action.

A long-term breakout would require a move beyond $80 on the upside or $64 on the downside.

Gold Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold continues to set new record highs amid U.S.-Russia-Ukraine tensions, trading above $2,945. However, a confirmed hold above $2,940 is necessary to sustain the rally toward $3,000 and $3,050.

If gold fails to hold above key resistance, a triple top formation may trigger a retracement toward $2,890, $2,860, $2,820, and $2,790. While geopolitical risks can drive markets in one direction, peace deals and political clarity can swiftly reverse these moves, making risk management essential.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

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