US 500

It has been another turbulent start to the week for Wal Street and ASX 200 futures, as traders react to Trump's tariffs.

Investors are closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including jobless claims and retail sales data today, for clues about the health of the US economy and the Fed’s policy trajectory. For as long as we don’t see big surprises, mildly positive surprises in these areas could reinforce the market’s optimism and provide further fuel for the S&P 500.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries have risen as much as 120 bps from the low just before the FOMC’s first rate cut of this cycle, and now it’s starting to negatively impact equities.

The market was already repricing US interest rates higher in recent days and week, amid expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, when he takes office later this month. But the surprising strength of US labour market means traders have now shifted the full pricing of the next Fed rate cut to October.

The recent bearish trend isn’t confined to the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced its first 10-day losing streak since 1974, shedding nearly 2,900 points over two weeks from its highest to its lowest points.

While the market appears bullish right now, the S&P 500 forecast is far from certain, especially with a lack of fresh bullish catalysts to consider. Could profit-taking negatively impact the market soon?

So far, US stock investors appear unfazed by global softness in commodities and bond markets, even as the 10-year Treasury yield inches closer to 4.5%, reflecting a more hawkish interest rate outlook for next year. But with the dust settling on Trump’s election victory, could we finally see retracement to cause a bearish shift in the short-term S&P 500 forecast?

A brutal day for risk sent Wall Street indices lower on Thursday, but support levels and the tendency for stocks to rise on the week of a US election could help the S&P 500 and ASX 200. Assuming the wheels don't truly fall off first.

While there’s been some continuation to the upside following Wednesday's tech-driven rally, any hint of fading momentum could put the bulls back on shaky ground. After all, clear bullish catalysts seem few and far between at the moment. The S&P 500 forecast could yet turn bearish, if we now see another twist in price action.

With so much attention on US employment data this week, I feel compelled to remind all that today’s ISM services report could pack a punch of its own.

The Dow Jones reached a record high on Monday, but only just. And unless other key markets close the gap, we could be looking at a bull trap.

It has been another day of solid gains for the US markets, with the benchmark US indices holding onto gains of around 1.0 to 2.7 percent at the time of writing. Nikkei futures have surged further to 3.5%, tracking the USD/JPY higher in what has been a full-on risk-on day in the markets. It looks like the markets will end the week on a strong positive not, heading into the last day of the week.

Market reactions over the past 24 hours have been well covered. But the VIX is worthy of a closer look, given it just posted its strongest single-day rally on record.

The robust rally in the first half of the year set high expectations, particularly in the technology sector. While some sector rotation into energy and financials occurred last week, it wasn't sufficient to prevent a broader market decline. Disappointing earnings from key players like Alphabet and Tesla have led to revised investor expectations.

Another turbulent session on Wall Street saw the Dow Jones snap a 6-day winning streak, the VIX rise to a 12-week high and drag ASX 200 futures down accordingly.

While the tech sector's struggles have dominated headlines, it's crucial to note that the broader stock market's performance is not solely dependent on the "magnificent 7" group of tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its fourth consecutive record high on Wednesday, driven by sector rotation. The small-cap Russell 2000 index has also posted substantial gains lately, spurred by last week's inflation report showing consumer prices falling to 3.0% year-over-year in June.

Supporting stocks today was news of another weaker-than-expected inflation report. Treasury yields fell as a slowdown in producer prices measure of inflation bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year.