Italy

Rebounding service revenues justify giving Vodafone the benefit of the doubt, for now

A recovery in organic service revenues would help soothe persistent worries over India and South Africa

Investors are avoiding major moves ahead of Saturday’s momentous risk event

One key EU government could be headed for collapse whilst another could soon be formed

The political situation in Italy is reaching code red; EUR/USD poised for a big move

After a week like this, investors are clearly unwilling to go into the weekend with strongly bullish positions exposed to next week's unpredictable open

In recent weeks the focus has been on escalating global trade tensions and implications for markets. Tonight, it is Europe’s chance to regain the spotlight at its monthly ECB interest rate meeting and courtesy of problem child, Italy again waving a defiant fist at Brussels.

Europe’s rebound may not turn out to be any more deluded than elsewhere

A lack of fresh trade dispute developments increases focus on events in Italy

A more convincing patina of positive sentiment in Europe with help from Italy.

It’s that time of the year when the strategy teams from the big investment banks put out their forecast and top trades for the year ahead. Forecasting movements for equities, foreign exchange and interest rates is a daunting task in normal times, however, more so then ever in 2019, given the baseline provided by 2018 is, financial markets have experienced their most volatile year since the financial crisis in 2008. The 30% fall in the oil price in recent weeks is just the latest high volatility event of 2018, and the list of potential speed bumps for 2019 remains extensive.

In the absence of fresh direction from Wall Street, European markets are creating their own positive impetus.

A third-straight weak session for European gauges as Wall Street tentatively drifts higher.

European stock markets took their cue from the heavy selloffs in the US and Asia to open lower Thursday as bigger picture concerns about the US economy reasserted themselves.

After enjoying a day of sunshine earlier in the week, storm clouds returned to both the Sydney skyline and global financial markets yesterday. Leading the way lower in the Asian time zone was the Chinese equity markets. The Shanghai Composite, after closing down -2.90%, is now 30% below its 2018 lows and at levels last seen back in 2014. Storm clouds also for U.S. stocks as the S&P500 futures tumbled -1.50% to close at 2775.25 after retesting the 200-day moving average at 2770. As highlighted earlier in the week, noticeably absent from last week’s price action at the lows, is clear signs of seller exhaustion/capitulation as indicated by reversal/loss of momentum candles often sighted at equity market lows. The expectation remains for further weakness in the S&P 500 before the customary end of year rally begins.

The FTSE opened gingerly lower this morning but European stocks are trading higher in the calm before the storm.