Gold Price Forecast: Gold's 9-Month Streak at Risk into Month-End

Gold Talking Points:

• Gold was consistently strong from lows in February into late-October, but a different trend appeared just ahead of the November open.
• Gold prices pulled back quickly after results of the U.S. Presidential election and likely a reason was anti-fiat flows driving into Bitcoin.
• Last week saw a massive rally as spot gold gained by 5.98%, the most since March of 2023 which was around the time that regional banking worries were coming into the picture, propelling gold up for it’s third test of the 2k psychological level.
• In my last gold article titled ‘Gold Goes for Recovery – Levels to Know,’ I looked at a big spot of support and that’s currently marking the two-month-lows in spot gold prices.

Last week was a big week for gold. With spot gold prices gaining 5.98%, it was a clear and decisive response from bulls after the pullback that had taken over around the November open. But – there was some geo-pol drive behind that bid as escalating tensions in Ukraine brought buyers back into the mix, and as looked at in these articles just as the move was getting started, support had showed at a key spot on the chart.

The 2538 level is the 50% retracement of the June-October move and, so far, that’s held the two-month-low in spot gold prices. Gold gained each day last week before opening this week with an aggressive pullback.

Gold Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Shorter-Term

While bulls were in control of gold prices for much of last week, this week opened in a far different manner. The initial move after the weekly open tested above 2720 but sellers hit that quickly, driving down to a zone of prior support at 2660-2666 (which remains relevant). After another bounce from that zone, sellers stood ready to hit a lower-high with resistance at prior support, taken from the 2685 level. And then as US markets opened for the day on Monday sellers made a big push, driving all the way down to just above the 2600 level which is where the sell-off finally started to slow, a bit.

The rest of Monday and into early-Tuesday trade it was all about the 2617-2621 zone which, ultimately, helped to cauterize support before bulls took another shot at regaining control of the situation.

Gold Two-Hour Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Four-Hour

The four-hour chart appears a bit clearer to me but it also highlights the importance of buyers regaining control and taking out the 2660-2666 zone. And given the recent grind with support at 2617-2621, there’s a spot of short-term resistance that could be used for higher-low support, plotted around 2632.

The current four-hour bar in spot gold has a few hours until completion and, ideally for bulls, the four-hour candle close would show above 2643 which marks the bottom of a zone that runs up to 2650.

Gold Four-Hour Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold’s Bigger Picture

I mentioned the February instance a little earlier and that remains key in the bigger picture, as gold has gained for each monthly bar since January. That makes for nine consecutive months of gain which would be more than any other period in the last 24-plus years for spot gold prices.

Unless something aggressive happens in the next couple of days, with the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. leading into the final trading day of the month, it looks as though that streak may be broken.

But – the underside wick on the monthly chart is already fairly wide – and if buyers do put in more of a dent here, that would be a clear support response after a pullback attempt, and that’s something that could keep a bullish bias for gold prices as we move towards the end of what’s been a big year for the metal.

Gold Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist