Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Plunges Toward Support at Yearly Low

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Euro plummets to key pivot zone at yearly lows- threatens break of 2022 uptrend
• EUR/USD risk for downside exhaustion / price inflection into support- NFPs on tap Friday
• Resistance ~1.0843, 1.0942, 1.1038– Support 1.0704/12 (key), 1.0587, 1.0448

Euro is on the defensive into the April open with EUR/USD trading near the yearly lows early in the week. A decline of more than 2.3% off the March highs is now approaching key technical support and the focus is on possible near-term exhaustion / price inflection here this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD had, “rebounded from confluent uptrend support with the recovery trading back into the 52-week moving average… From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 2021 trendline (blue) IF price is heading lower with a break / weekly close below 1.0704 still needed to invalidate the 2022 uptrend.” Euro rallied more than 1.3% the following week with price registering an intraweek high at 1.0981 before reversing sharply lower. A four-week decline is has broken below the 2022 trendline with EUR/USD now approaching critical lateral support- looking for a reaction down here.

Key support remains with the 2023 yearly open / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October advance at 1.0704/12. A break / weekly close below this threshold would constitute a breakout of the yearly opening-range with such a scenario exposing subsequent support objectives at the 2023 low-week close (LWC) at 1.0587 and the stretch low at 1.0448 – an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Weekly resistance now stands with the 52-week moving average (currently ~1.0843) and is backed by the objective 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 1.0942. Ultimately, a breach / weekly close above the December HWC / 2024 yearly open at 1.1038 would be needed to suggest a larger topside breakout is underway in the Euro.

Bottom line: Euro is threatening a break the late-2022 uptrend with price now within striking distance of key support at the yearly opening-range lows. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to the yearly moving average IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.07 needed to fuel the next leg in price.

Keep in mind we are just in the early throws of the monthly / quarterly opening-ranges with key US employment data on tap on Friday- stay nimble here and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex