Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Trends Continue to Unfold

Key Events

• Possible Israel-Gaza Ceasefire
• Trump Vows to Lower Oil Prices
• Chinese Loan Prime Rates Remain Unchanged
• Insights from FOMC Members Bostic and Barr Expected Today

The outlook for crude oil appears increasingly bearish for the remainder of 2024, aligning with OPEC forecasts. The potential ceasefire, promises from U.S. presidential candidates to reduce oil prices, unchanged Chinese loan prime rates amid declining economic indicators, and the end of a six-week streak of inventory declines all contribute to the downward pressure.

Looking ahead, insights from FOMC members regarding the U.S. economic outlook, along with the release of the FOMC minutes, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data, and Fed Chair Powell's economic outlook during the Jackson Hole Symposium, are likely to introduce higher volatility in crude oil markets throughout the rest of the week.

From a Technical Perspective

Crude Oil Outlook: USOIL – 3Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Dropping once again below its consolidation range, oil prices are potentially heading back to the 2024 starting point around the 71 level, aligning with the mid-channel zone. If prices break below 71, the trend is expected to extend toward the lower zones at 69, 65, and possibly down to 60, approaching the bottom of the channel.

However, in the event of renewed war escalations or potential OPEC interventions, a bullish reversal could occur near the 75 level at the lower end of the consolidation range, with further spikes potentially realigning prices towards the 80 zone.

--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves