Fundamental Analysis

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept Australia’s cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in May but refrained from increasing its longer-term underlying inflation forecasts, limiting the risk of a near-term interest rate hike.

The US dollar is testing support and the NFP leading indicators point to a slightly above expectation reading this month, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 200-250K range

The US dollar initially fell and indices rose as traders interpreted the Fed meeting and press conference as dovish.

USD/JPY's key technical levels to watch in the coming days include possible resistance at 149.70 and 151.00, with support down at 148.70 and 145.85.

Those considering buying the break may want to look at copper’s lousy track record when it’s been this overbought on the four hourly chart in the past.

The largest and most important part of the Australian economy is struggling under the weight of higher borrowing costs, adding to the risk the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be forced to start lowering policy rates sooner than other central banks, keeping the Australian dollar under pressure.

Risks are growing that Australia’s economy went backwards in the December quarter, keeping alive the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia bringing forward rate cuts following a string of weak domestic economic data last week. AUD/USD therefore remains a sell-on-rallies prospect.

Australian CPI is expected to accelerate in January, fitting with numerous other inflation readings around the developed world. While that sounds like a scenario that could benefit the AUD/USD on reduced RBA rate cut bets, don’t be surprised if an initial bounce is faded quickly on this occasion.

Crude oil production set to outpace demand next year as supply shifts further to non-OPEC+ producers

Booming jobs growth, record labour force participation and a gradual loosening of labour market conditions with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9%. For policymakers attempting to deliver a soft economic landing, Australia’s jobs report for November could barely have been better.

In contrast to price action on the S&P 500 which is within touching distance of record highs, China’s A50 languishes at multi-year lows, hit by a sluggish domestic economy, fears about negative spillover effects from distressed property developers, along with geopolitical and regulatory risks.

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If we see a daily close below 1.0635 support, it would open the door for another leg lower in EUR/USD...

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