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EUR/USD forecast: Divergent interest rate outlook, geopolitics deliver potent bearish mix
With most major events scheduled outside the continent, EUR/USD direction looks set to be dictated by external influences next week. Preference is to sell rallies given the technical breakdown on Friday.
DAX analysis: German index tests 18K support ahead of ECB and more US inflation data
DAX technical levels and factors to watch on the German index as it tests the pivotal 18,000 level with the focus turning on the ECB rate decision, while US sticky inflation concerns make unwelcome return ahead of PPI data.
EUR/USD analysis: With NFP out of the way, US CPI and ECB come into focus
US dollar eases off after initial bounce, after US NFP rose by 300K, although it was boosted by part-time jobs. US CPI and ECB policy decision coming up next week, which should provide some direction for the EUR/USD.
S&P 500 rally threatened as geopolitics enters the ring: The Week Ahead
Tensions surrounding the Middle East has unsettled markets. US indices such as the S&P 500 are on track for their worst week of the year, crude oil reached a fresh YTD high and the risk-off sentiment was even enough to knock gold from its record. Traders therefore need to be on guard for headline risks surrounding the Middle East next week, alongside the usual bouts of economic data and central bank meetings.
EUR/USD struggled last week when it was given an invitation to rally
EUR/USD was poor last week, finding little benefit from the Federal Reserve delivering a dovish surprise at its March FOMC meeting. With little event risk to speak of in the week ahead, and trading through its 50-day moving average, selling rallies is favoured.
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Carves Out a Tight Range Ahead of US PPI and Retail Sales
US data will continue to play a major role for EUR/USD, with PPI and Retail Sales on tap tomorrow. See the key levels to watch!
FTSE analysis: UK stocks outperform as Chinese markets and commodities rally
UK stocks track Chinese markets and commodities higher. Rising commodity and precious metals prices should support mining stocks, plenty of which are constituents of the FTSE. Meanwhile, technical analysis suggests the UK stock index could finally join global rally.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD looks to ECB rate decision. USD/JPY falls after Powell and as hawkish BoJ bets build.
FTSE, China A50 analysis: Technical Tuesday - March 5, 2024
FTSE 100 attempts to join global rally, boosted by China's efforts to shore up its economy. China FTSE A50 analysis shows Chinese stocks are responding positively to needs China has set a 5% GDP target, which will needs policy support ‘from all fronts’
EUR/USD in the hands of ECB, Powell Testimony, ISM services: The Week Ahead
EUR/USD is on track for its smallest weekly range since September 2021, although 1-week implied volatility levels that we could see more action next week.
FTSE outlook: UK stocks underperform again but future may be brighter
FTSE continues to underperform European and US markets, with new records or multi-year highs set for mainland European indices after S&P crossed 5K. Yet the FTSE was lower again. Still, UK stocks are at “record cheap” levels ahead of busy week of data.
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Key Support at 1.08 Ahead of Fed, NFP
EUR/USD is testing key support near 1.0800 with major crosswinds from month-end flows, the Fed, and NFP this week.
EUR/USD analysis: ECB day arrives with US GDP also in focus
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to acknowledge that the current state of the Eurozone economy, with growth hovering around zero, is not great. However, it will probably highlight more forcefully signs suggesting that inflation is not making swift progress towards their 2% target, particularly in light of the persistent pressure on wages.
EUR/USD looks dazed and confused ahead of Ifo, ECB: European open
The 1-hour chart for EUR/USD is a sight for sore eyes. It lacks a defined trend and has seen bursts of volatility in both directions before reverting to the centre of its sideways chopfest. But with key events within sight, we may be able to get a breakout or at least a clearer picture.
EUR/JPY: US data in control without BOJ or ECB rate shock
EUR/JPY sits near two-month highs heading into the BOJ and ECB interest rate decisions, consolidating after a strong rally that saw the pair add nearly eight big figures from the lows of December.
EUR/AUD traders eyeing a bounce or break from 200-day moving average
The proximity of EUR/AUD to its 200-day moving average and uptrend support presents an opportunity for traders to position for either a bounce or break from this technical juncture, providing favourable risk-reward depending on which way the price moves.
EUR/AUD looking toppy following Australia’s jobs report
Having spiked to two-month highs in the immediate aftermath of Australia’s December jobs report, EUR/AUD reversed hard, generating a bearish pin candle on the four-hourly suggesting it may have seen a near-term top.
FTSE analysis: Banks and luxury stocks weigh ahead of key data
FTSE analysis: Why has UK 100 struggled? Top-tier Chinese, UK and US data could ignite much-needed momentum into the FTSE this week, as technical analysis suggests bulls may still be clinging on...
FTSE analysis: UK index looks to buck EU market weakness as oil climbs
Disappointing Eurozone data put some pressure on European indices on Thursday morning, following the sizeable rally in Europe and US the day before. This saw major European indices drop sharply this morning, led by a 2% fall in Spain’s Ibex. But the FTSE was holding its own relatively better, as rebounding crude oil helped to fuel a rally in energy stocks.
EUR/USD 2024 Fundamental Outlook Preview
Stronger US growth and similar inflation on both sides of the Atlantic could lead to more aggressive interest rate cuts from the ECB, boosting EUR/USD.
Euro Analysis: EUR/USD Bounces Off 1.09 – 1.10 Retest Next?
Time will tell if the ECB is forced to cut interest rates sooner and more aggressively than it hopes to, but clearly markets are content betting against central banks’ “higher for longer” mantra.
FTSE and Pound analysis: BoE not so dovish after Fed pivot
The FTSE eased off from earlier highs on not-so-dovish BoE hold. The key takeaway point is that there was no pivot, with the BoE warning that there's still some way to go on inflation front. This implies tight policy for longer. GBP/USD extends post FOMC rally as BoE's "finely balanced" decision saw three dissenters voted for 25bps hike.
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP in focus for BOE and ECB meetings: European open
We have arguably seen the biggest central bank surprise of the week, with the Fed’s dovish pivot. But that may also influence the tone of the SNB, BOE and ECB at their meetings today – even if only to a degree.