Fundamental Analysis

A confirmed GBP/USD break above previous highs in the 1.3050 zone opens the door for a continuation toward 1.3150, whereas a reversal near here could take the pair back toward previous-resistance-turned-support in the upper-1.28s next

US recession fears have eased, helped by stronger-than-expected activity data from the services sector and a sizeable drop in initial jobless claims last week. But the relative calm in markets may not last for long with history pointing to the risk that recession concerns may soon flare again.

Traders now fear that the Fed is “behind the curve” and risks tipping the US economy into recession – bad (economic) news is once again bad news (for Bitcoin and other risk assets).

Leading indicators point to a below expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 125K-175K range.

EUR/USD is trying to stage a bounce off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-June to mid-July rally

Labour has secured a thumping victory in the UK general election. GBP/USD is unmoved on the news, reflecting the result was priced in months ago. But the lack of volatility is also explained by its on the charts. It sits at an important level, making today’s June US nonfarm payrolls report a potential catalyst for a sizeable market move.

NFP leading indicators point to a slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 175-225K range.

GBP/USD slipped last week on a moderately dovish BOE – what should traders be watching this week?

The largest and most important part of the Australian economy is struggling under the weight of higher borrowing costs, adding to the risk the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be forced to start lowering policy rates sooner than other central banks, keeping the Australian dollar under pressure.

Risks are growing that Australia’s economy went backwards in the December quarter, keeping alive the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia bringing forward rate cuts following a string of weak domestic economic data last week. AUD/USD therefore remains a sell-on-rallies prospect.

Australian CPI is expected to accelerate in January, fitting with numerous other inflation readings around the developed world. While that sounds like a scenario that could benefit the AUD/USD on reduced RBA rate cut bets, don’t be surprised if an initial bounce is faded quickly on this occasion.

For this week, Eurozone PMIs and central bank speakers will be the big focus - see the key levels to watch on EUR/USD!

Read on to see how inflation and Fed policy could impact the price of commodities like gold this year!

How interest rate differentials, scarcity, and falling liquidity could work together to boost the US dollar

EUR/USD’s path of least resistance remains to the downside, with potential for the selling to accelerate toward 1.0700 depending on economic data...

As a high beta play on the global economy, the NZD/USD may be signaling downside risks are growing in other cyclical assets.

The leading indicators point to a stronger-than-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 175K-225K range