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EUR/USD selloff looks overdone, whichever way you splice it
EUR/USD has taken quite the drubbing over the past four week. And given the plethora of support levels it used as a springboard to buck the trend on Thursday, I suspect at least a retest of its 200-day SMA could be on the cards.
Nasdaq 100 forecast: Will dip buyers rescue markets again or is it different this time?
Betting against the market has proved to be very costly this year, with all sorts of dips being bought fairly quickly. But is this another such scenario or is it different this time around – especially with US presidential election now just three weeks away?
EUR/USD, gold futures levels heading into US inflation
EUR/USD is hugging its cycle lows and gold sits at a technical juncture ahead of today's highly anticipated inflation report.
USD index on track for its best week in 25 ahead of NFP
Yes, I may have just given the USD the kiss of death with that headline. Besides, the dollar has already rallied for four days into the release, so it may take a strong report overall to avoid a profit-taking pullback.
Gold, silver, copper: September cranks up the vols for heavy metals
Gold, silver and copper were dragged lower with appetite for risk on Tuesday, although it may be the latter two which show the greater potential for bears going forward.
EUR/USD could reclaim 1.11 if ISM manufacturing sinks further
If ISM manufacturing deteriorates further, it could helped EUR/USD reclaim the 1.11, handle, even if the weekly timeframe looks like it can still move lower beyond any such bounce.
Nvidia, PCE inflation to drive Nasdaq Street sentiment: The Week Ahead
Nvidia’s earnings report on Thursday has the potential to drive sentiment for the Nasdaq 100, particularly if it misses estimates for the first quarter in seven. Traders will then focus on the PCE inflation report on Friday to assess Fed policy – assuming Jerome Powell hasn’t made it crystal clear what to expect at his Jackson Hole speech later today. Which seems unlikely.
USD/JPY firmer, Wall Street rattled as Fed tame doves ahead of Powell
Momentum finally turned lower on Wall Street after two Fed members forced traders to question their increasingly dovish positioning, ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. USD/JPY may have already seen the swing low I've been seeking this week.
Yen traders flipped to net-long exposure: COT report
Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure to yen futures for the first time since February 2021, fuelled by a surge in long bets and plunge of shorts. Yet asset managers are taking a more cautious approach to being bullish the yen.
AUD/USD forecast: Aussie and Chinese data to test bulls’ conviction
Following the slightly weaker US CPI data, the key question now is whether the US central bank will opt for 25 or 50 basis points in September, and at what pace it will continue thereafter. The US dollar weakness should persist I reckon, which should keep the AUD/USD forecast bullish. But the Aussie is now going to face a fresh test from upcoming Australian jobs and Chinese industrial data.
EUR/USD outlook boosted by dollar weakness ahead of CPI
With industrial data remaining weak in the Eurozone and after a dismal ZEW survey for Germany yesterday, you might be wondering what on earth are FX traders smoking by bidding up the EUR/USD?
EUR/USD forecast: US PPI in focus ahead of CPI after soft ZEW survey
So why isn’t the EUR/USD falling? In addition to concerns over inflation persistence in the Eurozone, the improvement in risk appetite in recent days is also working against the euro bears who must be frustrated by the lack of volatility despite weaker Eurozone data. Then there is the US dollar side of the story to consider, too. The latter is far more important in my view than any of these factors mentioned.
GBP/USD forecast: Currency pair of the week - August 12, 2024
The cable is facing a key test this week with inflation and retail sales data to come from both sides of the pond. Market volatility has died down and the US dollar has fallen against the high-beta commodity dollars and risen against low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen. If we don’t see any upside surprises in US inflation and activity data this week, this should cause the US dollar to fall further.
USD/JPY forecast: Attention turns to US inflation data
In the early parts of the week ahead, we could well see some further stabilisation in the global markets so long as the USD/JPY doesn’t fall in the same pace we saw on Monday and Friday of the week before. The focus will then turn to key inflation data from the US, which has the potential to cause significant volatility and impact the USD/JPY forecast should we see a big deviation in data from expectations.
EUR/USD forecast: Forex Friday - August 9, 2024
Following the recovery in the equity markets and calmer conditions across asset crosses, the markets have started to warm towards pro-cyclical currencies after initially favouring haven ones or those where interest rates are lower, when all the turmoil started last week after yen-funded carry trades came under intense pressure.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 catch a tailwind from Wall Street optimism
AUD/USD received a tailwind thanks to a pickup of risk appetite, as cooler jobless claims figures pointed expectations back towards a soft landing for the Fed. However, the risk-on 'rally' pales in comparison to the selloff which preceded it.
AUD/USD forecast boosted as risk appetite improves
Financial markets have been a lot calmer thanks partly to reassuring words from the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan yesterday. This has had a positive impact across the financial markets, including global equity markets, Bitcoin, and metals prices. We have also had stronger-than-expected US jobless claims data today, helping to ease concerns over an economic slowdown in the US. This comes after a stronger ISM services PMI on Monday, both helping to offset weaker macro pointers last week.
Gold outlook still positive after recent slip
Gold’s slight weakness in recent days was probably due to the sharp sell-off in stocks, which forced the liquidation of leveraged long trades, including gold. However, as I have mentioned before, the downside should be limited for gold. The fundamental gold outlook remains positive, and new all-time highs are still within reach.
AUD/USD, Bitcoin analysis: A rebound for risk does not equate to risk on
Risk assets may be on the rise, but it is more due to a pause in risk off as opposed to buyers rushing back in. Still, it could still allow for some bullish wriggle room on AUD/USD and bitcoin if sentiment allows.
Nasdaq 100 forecast: Markets remain vulnerable despite BoJ pushback
After starting the day well in the green, the major US indices were coming under a bit of pressure again at the time of writing, with investors unable to shake off the recent turmoil impacting financial markets. For now, the Nasdaq 100 forecast remains mildly bearish after the recent breakdown. More evidence of a bottom is needed to excite the bulls again even if there is a sense of calmness observed in price action over the past two days or so.
DAX forecast: Risk appetite improves
The absence of new bearish news and a light economic calendar have helped improve risk appetite somewhat. While not completely out of the woods, the market's realignment with fundamentals offers a more optimistic outlook. Stay tuned for further updates as the DAX tries to establish a base around its 200-day average.
USD/JPY Analysis: Technical Tuesday – August 6, 2024
The spotlight is on the USD/JPY and other yen crosses right now, with a particular focus on the ongoing unwind of carry trades that continues to make waves across financial markets.
EUR/USD outlook: Markets not out of the woods yet
Market turbulence often presents lots of opportunities, but there is still excess froth to be shed as the unwinding of leveraged carry trades persists for now. For now, the greenback has rebounded, helped in part by the stronger ISM services PMI. Still, in light of the recent events and expectations of a sharper pivot by the Fed than was previously expected, the EUR/USD outlook remains mildly positive.