AUD

Stickiness in services and domestic inflation, accompanied by continued resilience in labour market conditions, points to the likelihood of the RBA striking a more hawkish tone in its May monetary policy meeting, creating upside risks for the Australian dollar

The growth engine of the Chinese economy unexpectedly decelerated last month while Australian retail sales are growing at the weakest pace on record outside one-off economic shocks, putting AUD/USD under renewed pressure on Tuesday.

It’s not just AUD/USD and the RBA interest rate outlook that have been shaken up by Australia’s hot March quarter inflation report with the Australian dollar gaining sharply against the crosses, especially those currencies whose central banks are still expected to ease monetary policy this year.

AUD/USD is charging higher, powered by a hotter-than-expected Australian March quarter consumer price inflation report that has seriously dented the case for rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia this year.

Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.

Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.

With ample good news priced into the US dollar outlook and a big reversal in the AUD/USD on Tuesday, there are signs the torrent of bearish sentiment may be slowly turning around.

AUD/USD remains a sell-on-rallies prospect in a week where interpretation of Fedspeak and US labour market data will dominate. It will be imperative for the US data to portray a message of continued economic strength to see meaningful downside materialise.

Too soon to turn bullish AUD/USD but be ready when the turn eventually comes.

Australian CPI is expected to accelerate in January, fitting with numerous other inflation readings around the developed world. While that sounds like a scenario that could benefit the AUD/USD on reduced RBA rate cut bets, don’t be surprised if an initial bounce is faded quickly on this occasion.

Japan's core CPI didn't fall below the BOJ's 2% target, although it did match it. Which has seen AUD/JPY and USD/JPY retrace further from their highs in light of yen strength.

AUD/JPY has fast approached a pivotal level to hint that an eventual breakout could be on the cards, even if not immediately. The ASX 200 looks sets to bounce after positive earning from Nvidia lifted Wall Street futures after market hours.

Attempts to ram EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD into higher trading ranges failed last week, suggesting the Aussie dollar may be starting to rediscover its mojo against some major European crosses.

With the US dollar unable to find traction despite shorter-dated US yields rising to the highest level since mid-December, there are grounds to suggest AUD/USD may be able to break stubborn resistance located above .6530 in the days ahead.

Australia's unemployment rose to a three year to knock AUD pairs from their perches. But in particular I'm keeping an eye on AUD/JPY which has reversed at a key resistance area.

AUD/USD hasn’t had much luck dealing with sellers layered above .6530 recently. 13 attempts on the four-hourly chart in less than a week to no avail, leaving it sandwiched in a tight range between minor uptrend support.

EUR/AUD is on track to record its fifth consecutive daily gain to start the trading week, moving the pair to within touching distance of the downtrend bulls have been thwarted at on several separate occasions dating back to the middle of last year.