Options market

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

US banks kick off Q4 earnings season, with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo reporting. PepsiCo will also report earnings.

Earnings this week from Nike, Carnival and Tesco will be under the spotlight.

Earnings from Costco, Micron Technologies and AutoZone are due this week,

Earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce are scheduled for the coming week.

If the Nikkei 225 outlook is a function of moves in the Japanese yen due to the impact on exporter earnings, what should traders monitor to gauge when USD/JPY may bottom? Because right now, the risk-off tone in FX is flowing through to equities, feeding upon one other to create an ugly snowball effect in Japanese markets.

After an underwhelming start to earnings from the magnificent 7, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will release earnings this week.

A UK general election will be held on July 4th. Since the announcement, the FTSE has fallen around 1%, and GBP remains well supported. In short, the market is calm about the prospect of Labour, which is ahead in the polls, winning power. This is because it is expected, and the policies aren't radically different from Conservative policies. The economy as a whole isn't expected to change its course and the timing of the BoE rate cut could be more of a market driver. That said, there are some policies that could affect specific sectors, which we consider below.

If the 2-year yield is right, it suggests the USD could be set to rise over the near term. And I suspect that PCE inflation could be the trigger. For now, risk off tones are in the air.

It’s said the stock market isn’t the economy and based on the performance of Hang Seng futures on Wednesday, it’s hard to argue against. Because on the same day the International Monetary Fund upgraded its China economic growth forecast, stocks in Hong Kong are getting hammered.

Nvidia is expected to report $5.18 in EPS on $22.9B in revenue, but the company’s outlook for the rest of the year will be even more significant for the Nasdaq 100 as a whole.

After record highs on Wall Street last week, attention now turns to earnings from Nvidia, the darling of Wall Street, to see whether the AI stock can push for further record highs.

Japan’s Nikki 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng have been like chalk and cheese coming out of the pandemic. As one surged, the other floundered. But the tide looks to be turning, and fast.

The health of the consumer will be in focus next week, with US inflation data, retail sales, and the start of retailers' earnings. Walmart and Home Deport will update the market. Meanwhile, Chinese e-commerce and cloud giant Alibaba will also release earnings, along with Chinese retail sales figures later in the week,

Bond markets make the financial world go round, helping to grease the wheels of commerce, allowing the economy activity to expand. But when too much debt is issued, it can overwhelm demand, causing borrowing costs to spike which can be detrimental to the economy.

Tuesday looms as a potential make-or-break session for Australia’s ASX 200 with futures sitting at a key technical level on the charts ahead of the RBA interest rate decision. One saving grace may be the continued rebound in iron ore futures in Singapore.