Latest research

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil faces volatility risks ahead of the OPEC meeting, now rescheduled for Wednesday to accommodate all members and avoid a clash with the Gulf Summit. Sideways price movements persist, leaning towards a bearish bias for 2025.

GBP/USD held steady on Friday but is on track for its largest weekly rise since mid-September as the US dollar gave back some of its Trump victory gains.

We will maintain our bearish EUR/USD forecast for the time being. This pair remains rooted in a bear trend, not just because of the threats of tariffs in 2025, but more so because of weakness in the eurozone economy and therefore the potential for more ECB rate cuts than from the Fed in the US, where even a December rate cut is not fully priced in, let alone cuts in 2025, after Trump’s election victory.

French political drama is generating noise again, but don’t be fooled; it's the relative outlook for growth and inflation either side of the Atlantic that’s really moving EUR/USD. With the ECB ready to step in, perpetual French chaos is just a sideshow for the euro.

EURUSD, Nasdaq Forecast: Eurozone inflation data is in focus as EURUSD hovers near two-year lows. Meanwhile, irregular market volatility surrounding Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year is poised to dominate headlines, alongside key US economic data and Federal Reserve rate expectations in early December.

USD/JPY bears have gone to work over the past two weeks, holding a lower-high even as USD spiked last Friday. And then forcing a breakdown from the descending triangle formation to test below the 151.95 level.

The recovery in EUR/USD may turn out to be temporary if it struggles to trade back above the former-support zone around the April low (1.0601).

Gold analysis: After the big sell-off on Monday, I will try to examine what this means for gold in terms of direction in the near-term outlook, purely from a technical point of view.

The update to the US PCE index is anticipated to show a rise in both the headline and core reading.

The slight cooling of the so-called "Trump Trade," i.e., with a strong dollar cooling as we have seen thus far in the week (except against CAD and CNH that were hit by Trump’s tariff threat overnight), may not last long. But today, the euro is finding itself on the front foot amid the relief bounce that commenced from end of last week from severely technical oversold levels. While the recovery may end up lasting for a while, the EUR/USD outlook remains modestly bearish.

Crude Oil, GBPJPY Forecast: The lingering effects of Trump-era policies continue to shape broader market trends. Expectations of war resolutions are pressuring oil prices into a neutral stance, while tariff policies are fueling volatility across the US dollar rally.

How could a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire impact oil prices and what are the key levels to watch?

The depreciation in USD/CAD may turn out to be temporary as the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is anticipated to show sticky inflation.

The slight cooling of the so-called "Trump Trade," characterised by a strong dollar (and a Bitcoin rally), may not last very long. For now, though, traders are adjusting their expectations somewhat and scaling back hopes for aggressive tax cuts and tariff hikes. It is far too early for us to drop out bearish EUR/USD forecast.

EUR/USD recovers from a 2-year low but gains could be limited, Oil steadies after 6% gains last week.

While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.