Commodities market

Some bullish fingers have likely been burned at this week's open, given the relatively bullish positioning on S&P 500 futures alongside short bets against the VIX rising to a 6-month high last week.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil retested its 2025 starting point, hovering near the key $72 support zone ahead of the first OPEC meeting of the year, next week's ISM PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls reports, and evolving energy policies under Donald Trump.

Silver bulls have finally cracked stubborn resistance, but can they maintain momentum? With gold hitting record highs, is this the beginning of a broader breakout for the precious metals complex?

Crude Oil and Bitcoin Outlook: Weaker Chinese PMI data, coupled with bearish market momentum, erased nearly all of crude oil’s 2025 gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains resilient above the $100,000 mark, awaiting the developing impact of the markets and new SEC policies.

Gold’s Monday wobble defied the usual playbook, dropping despite a softer USD and safe-haven demand. Is the bearish engulfing candle a signal for more downside ahead, or does the pullback provide another opportunity to reset longs for a run towards the record highs?

Gold buyers may now be turning their eyes upward for a retest of the record highs near $2790 in the coming days, if not a breakout to $2800+.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Oil prices retreated from the $80 resistance level, lifting hopes for bears as Trump’s return to office and ceasefire agreements take center stage. China’s strong economic performance and non-OPEC oversupply risks remain critical to determining the sustainability of the 2025 uptrend.

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

A tidal wave of high-grade supply from Guinea’s Simandou project threatens to crush iron ore prices in 2025. With Chinese port inventories near record highs and global steel output faltering, the $100 iron ore era looks increasingly shaky. Bears have waited years for fundamentals to reassert themselves; next year could finally be their moment.

See a technical preview of our 2025 Gold Outlook!

See a fundamental preview of our 2025 Gold Outlook!

See a preview of our full 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

See a preview of our 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

Not only are traders increasingly long the US dollar, they are also piling into short EUR/USD bets. And that could pave the way for a sub-parity euro next year.

Crude Oil, Gold Forecast: Following China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, demand sentiment for Chinese oil and gold has surged, pushing crude oil above $70 and gold above $2,700. Middle East tensions continue to reinforce support levels for these commodities as drastic regional developments unfold.

Iron ore and copper shine as China hints at supercharged stimulus, sparking a metals rally hotter than a blast furnace. With CEWC still ahead, could this be just the start of an electrifying run higher?

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure yen futures for the first time in six weeks. And it did not come without warning from myself or market positioning over the prior two weeks. Bullish exposure is certainly not extreme at just 2.4k contracts, but with odds of a BOJ hike rising and asset managers net-short by just 5.8k contracts, we could be looking at a stronger yen as we head into the new year given the turbulence we may face during Trump’s second term.