Commodities market

A tidal wave of high-grade supply from Guinea’s Simandou project threatens to crush iron ore prices in 2025. With Chinese port inventories near record highs and global steel output faltering, the $100 iron ore era looks increasingly shaky. Bears have waited years for fundamentals to reassert themselves; next year could finally be their moment.

See a technical preview of our 2025 Gold Outlook!

See a fundamental preview of our 2025 Gold Outlook!

See a preview of our full 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

See a preview of our 2025 Crude Oil Outlook report!

Not only are traders increasingly long the US dollar, they are also piling into short EUR/USD bets. And that could pave the way for a sub-parity euro next year.

Crude Oil, Gold Forecast: Following China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, demand sentiment for Chinese oil and gold has surged, pushing crude oil above $70 and gold above $2,700. Middle East tensions continue to reinforce support levels for these commodities as drastic regional developments unfold.

Iron ore and copper shine as China hints at supercharged stimulus, sparking a metals rally hotter than a blast furnace. With CEWC still ahead, could this be just the start of an electrifying run higher?

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil’s 4-year support level has amplified its importance as supply disruption risks rise again amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, OPEC’s upcoming meeting on Sunday could reshape production quotas and influence market dynamics.

Can silver and copper hold their ground, or are sharper declines on the horizon? The price action suggests a resumption of the bearish trend could be in the cards.

Gold and silver prices are bouncing back, fuelled by easing pressure from lower US Treasury yields and a softer US dollar. But can the move build into something greater? Here’s what’s driving the price action and the setups worth watching.

Gold and silver could be primed for a recovery as US bond yields show signs of consolidation following their rapid climb. With a quiet economic calendar and fewer Fed rate cuts now priced in, a near-term ceiling on yields may shift momentum in favour of precious metals. Here's why this setup could signal a bottom for gold and silver prices.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices face mounting pressures between clean energy transitions, geopolitical risks, and surplus concerns for 2025. Prices are now testing a critical 4-year support zone, challenging the continuation of the broader downtrend.

As the latest COT data is up to the close of election day, it shows how traders were positioned ahead of the results. Subsequent market moves suggest they needn't have piled into VIX longs and could have increased net-long exposure to the USD. But they were right to be wary of gold.

Large speculators joined asset managers with a net-short exposure to yen futures ahead of the BOJ meeting, although their bearish positioning may be ‘short lived’ if the central bank really is a step closer to raising rates. De-risking also appears to be in the air ahead of the US election looking at positioning across AUD/USD, gold and the VIX.

It was another flipping week for futures traders, with the $10.6 billion added to USD longs seeing the dollar flip to net-long exposure, large speculators revert to net-short EUR/USD and asset managers flip to net-short JPY/USD exposure.

Bullish bets for the VIX continued to rise, which saw asset managers flip to net-long exposure and large speculators close to doing so themselves. Bullish interest for the USD index also rose alongside prices, yet traders shied away from cured oil and were more bearish on commodity FX. Positioning was also mixed across Wall Street indices.