US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (JAN 2025)

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 256K rise in December versus forecasts for a 160K print, while Average Hourly Earnings slipped to 3.9% from 4.0% during the same period.

US Economic Calendar – January 10, 2025

A deeper look at the report showed the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly narrowing to 4.1% from 4.2% in November even as the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 62.5% during the same period.

The update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that ‘Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance,’ with the report going onto say that ‘building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers lost jobs (-11,000).’

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EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

The US Dollar rallied following the better-than-expected NFP report, with EUR/USD exchange rate falling to a fresh weekly low of 1.0213. The weakness in EUR/USD carried into the week ahead as it slipped to a fresh monthly low (1.0178), but the exchange rate retraced the decline as it closed the week at 1.0271.

Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 170K jobs in January, while the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.1% during the same period.

With that said, indications of a strong labor market may spur a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it encourages the Federal Reserve keep US interest rates on hold, but a weaker-than-expected NFP report may produce headwinds for the Greenback as it puts pressure on the central bank to further unwind its restrictive policy.

Additional Market Outlooks

US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Snaps Back Ahead of January Low

USD/JPY Pushes Below January Range Ahead of US NFP Report

Gold Record High Price Pushes RSI Into Overbought Zone

USD/CAD Clears 2020 High as Trump Tariff Looms

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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