XAU USD

Gold has found some relief from a weaker US dollar and lower yields in the last couple of days, but it could come under renewed pressure as the greenback’s weakness could be temporary, while easing Middle East tension owing to the ceasefire agreement point to lower haven demand.

Last week was the strongest weekly outing for gold since the regional banking crisis in 2023; but gold’s nine-month streak of gains is at risk as the metal finally pulled back in November.

Gold prices surged more than 4.3% this week with a four-day rally now threatening the October downtrend. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD technical charts.

The US Dollar has finally found some resistance after filling the FOMC gap from last year, and that goes along with a EUR/USD bounce from the 1.0500 psychological level.

Gold has been heavily sold so far this month, but Friday showed both a doji and an inside bar after the Thursday low printed at a really big level.

Gold prices plunged more than 9% off the record highs with a third weekly decline now testing initial support. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

For now, the ongoing hawkish repricing of US rates after Trump's emphatic victory is keeping US dollar and yields underpinned, and buck-denominated gold undermined.

Gold has now put in two consecutive red bars on the weekly and that’s been rare as there’s only been two other occurrences of such in the past seven months. But it’s still too early to say that the metal has topped.

Gold has been in a rip-roaring trend for much of 2024 trade but if you look at it from shorter time frames, there have been pullback opportunities, such as last month’s stall inside of 2700 or the current scenario inside of 2800.

Last month saw gold make a fast run at 2700 before finally stalling in the bullish trend, allowing for the development of a bull flag formation. But as that broke and bulls have now pressed towards 2800, another stall is showing inside of a big figure.

The US Dollar has put in a massive move in October but finally some resistance has appeared, allowing for a bit of strategy. The next week and a day are massive with inflation and employment data, followed by the election and another FOMC rate decision.

On Wednesday, the gold outlook dimmed further as investors assessed the main message coming from this week's Sintra conference – that more policy tightening is on the way – and decided to punish the metal further.

Now that we are seeing the bullish momentum fade somewhat, and prices remaining at significantly overbought technical levels on the higher time frames, even some of the most bullish enthusiasts would find it difficult to maintain a short-term bullish gold outlook, without first seeing a bit of a pullback in prices at the very least.

Gold prices broke major resistance last week with the rally already approaching initial resistance hurdles. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

A number of major markets are already stretched such as USD, Gold and EUR/USD flashing overbought or oversold readings. And realistically there’s really only three possible ways of working with something like that, discussed deeper in this week’s webinar.

Gold Forecast: Gold’s haven momentum is holding strong, breaking through key psychological levels one after the other. The $2700 and $2600 marks are now solid support levels, and the foggy outlook between US elections, the state of the US Dollar, and geopolitics are fueling the drive.

The bullish trend in gold continues to impress and spot gold has pushed an aggressive break above 2700, after support tests at 2685 and 2670 earlier this week. Bulls remain in firm control of XAU/USD, at this point.