WTI

Oil prices reversed from yearly open resistance this week with the bears aiming back towards multi-month range lows. A multi-timeframe view of the oil technical charts.

How could a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire impact oil prices and what are the key levels to watch?

Given the rise in non-OPEC supply growth, the OPEC+ will be under pressure to support prices. But the group has said that it will gradually restore withheld supplies after multiple delays. What’s more, we could see a sharp rise in US drilling activity under Trump’s plans. As a result, we could potentially see a boost in both OPEC and non-OPEC production by 2025 and beyond.

Crude oil prices came off their earlier lows by mid-day in London. But the path of least resistance remains to the downside, and I would be rather surprised if a breakdown does not occur in the coming days, barring a surprise supply-side shock.

Oil prices plunged more than 8% off the monthly high with WTI approaching critical support near the yearly lows. A multi-timeframe view of the Oil technical charts.

Highlighting demand concerns, the OPEC has today cut its oil demand growth forecast again. This is the fourth month in a row that it has done so. Weak oil demand in China, the world’s largest oil consumer, remains the primary driver of falling prices.

It was a lively day’s trade on Monday with Bitcoin reaching news highs above $80k and the USD index retesting its YTD high of 105.62. WTI crude oil and gold are on the brink of breaking key levels to the downside.

The immediate response in the commodities space to the Republican’s clean sweep victory has been a bearish one - especially for industrial metals. Copper and silver fell over 4% each, tracking weaker iron ore prices, while gold was off by around 3%. Crude prices fell too but came sharply off their earlier lows.

Oil prices surged 11.3% off the monthly low with WTI now testing resistance. A weekly opening-range breakout is imminent. A multi-timeframe view of the technical charts.

Crude Oil Outlook: With the initiation of the Fed's easing monetary policy cycle, market sentiment is trending upward, pushing oil prices back above the $70 mark.

The overall crude oil forecast remains clouded by weak demand, particularly from China, and rising supply pressures. As speculators turn increasingly bearish and technical signals point to further downside, oil prices could continue to face headwinds in the near term.

There has been a lot of hype over a dovish Fed, for quite some time. Yet asset managers (real money accounts) remain net long. I suspect we're a lot closer to the end of the USD bear case than the beginning.

Oil prices plunged to fresh yearly lows with WTI in free fall after breaking a multi-year consolidation pattern. A multi-timeframe view of the oil technical charts.

While it shows the potential to keep falling should current market positioning trends persist, a bounce could in in order first.

Hopes that the US driving season would propel prices to new 2024 highs this summer failed to materialise as demand remained weak in key economic regions like China. At the same time, the OPEC+ appeared content with plans to increase output from the fourth quarter.

If service PMIs from Asia are anything to go be, we could be in for some upside surprises from Europe and the US. And that places EUR/USD and WTI crude oil onto our radar.

Risk appetite made a swift comeback when the Fed opened the door to beginning their rate-cut cycle in September. The question is whether Wall Street indices, gold or WTI crude can extend their gains.