US Crude Oil

Against a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and the potential for increased non-OPEC supply growth, mainly in the US, the crude oil forecast remains modestly bearish.

WTI crude has accumulated a loss of more than 8% in value since mid-January of this year.

The WTI barrel has already recorded five consecutive sessions of losses, with a depreciation of more than 5%.

With China’s improving economic conditions, demand concerns have reduced and in the short-term there is little risk of an oil glut forming, but the slightly longer term outlook is a bit murky with the potential for another supply war to emerge between US shale and OPEC+ producers.

After rising in the first week of this year, oil prices are now showing a few signs of weakness as investors shift their focus towards Trump’s bearish energy agenda

This could be a pivotal week for the crude oil. With key US economic data on the horizon and the OPEC+ meeting later this week to discuss oil production targets, market participants are bracing for significant developments.

Given the rise in non-OPEC supply growth, the OPEC+ will be under pressure to support prices. But the group has said that it will gradually restore withheld supplies after multiple delays. What’s more, we could see a sharp rise in US drilling activity under Trump’s plans. As a result, we could potentially see a boost in both OPEC and non-OPEC production by 2025 and beyond.

Crude oil prices came off their earlier lows by mid-day in London. But the path of least resistance remains to the downside, and I would be rather surprised if a breakdown does not occur in the coming days, barring a surprise supply-side shock.

Stronger GDP, core durable goods orders and the drop in oil inventories have all helped to alleviate demand concerns somewhat, reducing the pressure on oil prices. After today’s reversal-looking price candle, our crude oil forecast has turned modestly bullish.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was slightly off its best levels but remained on track to close higher for the fourth consecutive week as of late Friday. In the week ahead, keep an eye on crude inventories and consumer inflation data from the US.

Despite weaker-than-expected industrial data from China overnight, which should have raised concerns about demand, crude oil prices have rallied more than 1.5% today, building on the 3.5% to 4.0% increase from the previous week.

It is possible we could see crude oil prices come under pressure again after the recent recovery. After all, there are several factors that are likely to limit the upside potential from here, including increased non-OPEC supply, which is undermining the OPEC+ efforts to stabilise the markets.

The crude oil selling resumed on Friday after a two-day respite, although the losses were not as severe as those observed earlier in the week and far less forceful than the drop in metals. This is because a strong jobs report and services PMI data both helped to reduce fears over weakening demand in the US...

Today’s release of a much stronger-than-expected ISM services PMI report has also helped to reduce economic slowdown fears, and this is helping oil prices. Traders have largely shrugged off the unexpected build in US crude oil stocks. In light of today’s recovery, the short-term crude oil forecast has turned moderately bullish.

WTI formed a bullish signal Wednesday after the DoE reported a drop in stockpiles, while the uptick in refinery utilization rate was welcome news ahead of the US driving season. Meanwhile, oil prices may also be closer to bottom as investors have now mostly priced out the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

WTI Crude Oil's momentum is shifting gears from MENA tensions towards economic growth statistics

Crude oil investors eye clues about demand outlook ahead of busy week, as OPEC+ cuts and reduced fears about Eurozone economy keep oil prices supported. WTI technical analysis suggests trend is still bullish.