Precious metals

Gold has found some relief from a weaker US dollar and lower yields in the last couple of days, but it could come under renewed pressure as the greenback’s weakness could be temporary, while easing Middle East tension owing to the ceasefire agreement point to lower haven demand.

Bitcoin, Gold Analysis: Ceasefire agreements are transitioning from speculation to reality ahead of the holiday season and Trump’s upcoming term. Gold’s rally has stalled below the $2,700 mark as haven demand wanes, while Bitcoin has retreated slightly below the psychological $100,000 level.

Gold analysis: After the big sell-off on Monday, I will try to examine what this means for gold in terms of direction in the near-term outlook, purely from a technical point of view.

Already lower on the day thanks to the risk on rally as traders reacted positively to Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, gold took another dive lower in the last hour.

EURUSD, Gold Analysis: In the FX markets, the dollar's pullback from the 107 mark continues to support positive rebounds across currencies. Meanwhile, in the precious metals market, geopolitical tensions and the dollar's cooling momentum have enabled gold to recover from steep post-election drops.

USDJPY, Silver Forecast: The US Dollar’s rally has pushed the yen to levels increasing Bank of Japan intervention risks and pressured silver to retest a critical yearly trendline, raising caution over potential further upward movements in the dollar.

For now, the ongoing hawkish repricing of US rates after Trump's emphatic victory is keeping US dollar and yields underpinned, and buck-denominated gold undermined.

Gold has started the week with a 2% pullback. The selling started right as trading opened in Asian markets, before extending those losses during the first half of European session. The metal is now on its second consecutive weekly decline.

On Wednesday, the gold outlook dimmed further as investors assessed the main message coming from this week's Sintra conference – that more policy tightening is on the way – and decided to punish the metal further.

Now that we are seeing the bullish momentum fade somewhat, and prices remaining at significantly overbought technical levels on the higher time frames, even some of the most bullish enthusiasts would find it difficult to maintain a short-term bullish gold outlook, without first seeing a bit of a pullback in prices at the very least.

Gold prices retreated sharply after hitting a record high earlier. Did we just see a near-term top in gold prices, or was this yet another trap for gold traders speculating on lower prices?

USDJPY Forecast: Safe-haven assets are gaining traction, with the US Dollar Index surging above the 104-mark, USDJPY above 150, and silver reaching 12-year highs.

Gold Forecast: Gold’s haven momentum is holding strong, breaking through key psychological levels one after the other. The $2700 and $2600 marks are now solid support levels, and the foggy outlook between US elections, the state of the US Dollar, and geopolitics are fueling the drive.

GBPUSD, Gold Forecast: The yearly UK CPI dropped fairly below the central bank’s 2% target at 1.7%, adding dovish sentiment on monetary policies. On the other hand, rising uncertainties direct gold back towards its record highs.

As well as disappointment regarding China’s stimulus, we haven’t seen any major escalations in the Middle East conflict, while the US dollar and bond yields also remain well supported. On top of this, technical indications suggest gold prices remain significantly overbought. All this means the scope for a decent downward move is there, if the bears dare try to step in against what has been one of the strongest bullish trends in gold and ahead of US presidential election.

USDJPY, Silver Forecast: As the U.S. dollar strengthens and uncertainty persists around monetary policies, elections, and geopolitical tensions, both USDJPY and Silver are proceeding through the third week of October on a positive note.

GBPUSD, Gold Analysis: Growing economic uncertainty, coupled with upcoming US elections, rising geopolitical tensions, and easing monetary policies, is boosting both the US Dollar Index and Gold, while pressuring the British Pound toward critical support levels.