Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bulls Eye Pivotal Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CHF poised to snap five-week advance- responding to long-term technical resistance.
USD/CHF September rally may be vulnerable- risk for near-term exhaustion / price inflection.
Resistance 8900 (key), 9042/45, 9144- Support 8757/75, 8907 (key), 8581

The US Dollar is poised to snap a five-week winning streak against the Swiss Franc with USD/CHF responding to a major resistance zone at multi-month highs. While the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable to a larger correction while below longer-term resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF was testing confluent resistance and that, “the immediate focus is on a breakout of the November opening-range (the election-day range) for guidance. Losses would need to be limited to 8526 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the yearly moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF broke higher the following week with a 2.5% rally off the monthly low extending into key resistance last week the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range near the 89-handle.

Note that that last week’s high confirms a three-point trendline off the 2022 high (red) with the median-line of a newly identified pitchfork (blue) also converging on this threshold. The focus is on possible inflection off this zone with the broader uptrend at risk while below.

Initial weekly support now rests with the 2021 low / 52-week moving average at 8758/75 and is backed closely by the 38.2% retracement of the recent advance at 8709- we’ll reserve this threshold as our medium-term bullish invalidation level. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the September rally / suggest a more significant high was registered last week. Subsequent support rests with the October weekly reversal close / 61.8% retracement at 8576/81.

A topside breach / close above the 89-handle would mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 78.6% retracement / 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 9042/45 and the yearly high-close at 9144- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: The USD/CHF rally exhausted into confluent resistance last week and while the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8709 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 89 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.