Sterling in suspense as speaker blocks MV three

A hastily arranged statement by the Speaker of the House of Commons has questioned the ‘legitimacy’ of government plans

Prospects of Meaningful Vote 3 going ahead were already looking shaky.

The government had flagged that it would pull its latest attempt if chances of success were low
William Hill and Ladbrokes had identically unfavourable odds earlier: 2/5 for 'no'; 7/4 for 'yes'
Northern Ireland’s DUP was “100% certain” not to back the deal this week
Other sceptics had belied indications that pro-Brexit Conservatives could soon thaw: “It is not too late to get real change to the backstop”, wrote Boris Johnson on Sunday

So the speaker’s surprise intervention got May’s deal off the hook: “government cannot legitimately resubmit…the same proposition…as that of last week”. Still, it’s obvious pressure on the government, which had yet to produce a substantive response at the time of writing, has ratchetted higher. A third vote must now be “fundamentally different”. Sterling dipped to the day’s low before reversing higher: there is as yet little new evidence of whether Brexit has been made ‘harder’ or ‘softer’, despite the drama.

In chart terms, sterling/U.S. dollar resistance towards $1.33 remains as heavy as it has been since the end of February
GBP/USD spiked to a $1.335 high on 27th February and then to near $1.338 last week and recoiled fast both times
The break outside of a narrower range of the last few sessions —capped by the same levels as above with a c. $1.32 bottom—hasn’t followed through
The overall structure looks weaker and further downward incursions aren’t ruled-out

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