Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains, Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000

Article Outline

Key Events: Chinese PMIs, trade wars, SEC Crypto Regulations, FOMC
Technical Analysis: Crude Oil and Bitcoin 3-Day and Weekly Time Frames

Chinese PMI’s Disappoint, Oil Rebounds From 72 Support

Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs fell short of expectations on Monday, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to a five-month low of 49.1, signaling contraction. Following a brief rebound from the $80 level, driven by factors such as Trump’s oil price cut claims and the dissipation of short-term bullish drivers, crude oil wiped out nearly all of its 2025 gains, sliding back to the $72 price zone.

Oil is currently trading above a volatile and uncertain range, with potential to gravitate toward its key four-year support zone between $64 and $68 if the $72 level is breached. This range will determine oil’s trajectory: either a steep decline toward $55 or a neutral hold.

Crypto Regulations

The U.S. is implementing a new crypto regulatory framework designed to foster financial innovation while reducing speculative risks. The SEC recently announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force with key objectives, including:

Developing clear registration pathways for crypto assets
Crafting sensible disclosure frameworks
Clarifying when crypto tokens qualify as securities
Ensuring judicious deployment of enforcement resources (Source: Forbes)

This evolving regulatory framework aims to create a sustainable environment for crypto investments, offering long-term stability and reducing market speculation. As these regulations take hold, sharp spikes in crypto volatility may gradually return to more stable levels.

Key market-moving events this week include escalating US-China trade war tensions, fueled by intensifying AI rivalry; Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with markets closely watching for signals amid inflation risks under the Trump presidency; and a series of mega-cap earnings reports that could steer broader market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Crude Oil Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame

Source: Tradingview

After declining from the $80 highs, crude oil rebounded from the $72 zone, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the trading range observed between October and December 2024.

Support Levels: A break below $72 could trigger further declines toward $70, $68, and the critical $64 support zone. If the $64 support fails, oil could plunge further, targeting $55 and $49.

Resistance Levels: Although bearish momentum dominates, a break back above $78 and $80 could signal recovery, extending gains to $84 and $89.

Bitcoin Outlook: Weekly Time Frame

Source: Tradingview

Bitcoin’s breakout to the $100,000 mark has brought it into an expanding consolidation pattern, aligning with a long-term trendline connecting the highs of 2021. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes:

1. Bullish Continuation: A firm close above $112,000 could confirm the continuation of Bitcoin's rally. Key levels include $128,000 and $147,000, aligning with the 1.618 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions derived from the trend between the September 2023 low ($25,000), the March 2024 high ($73,800), and the August 2024 low ($49,500).

2. Bearish Reversal: Failure to break above $112,000 could result in a potential double-top reversal. A break below $84,000 would signal further downside risk, with targets at $74,000, $63,000, and $51,000.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on Rh_waves

You Tube: Commodities and Forex Trading with Razan Hilal, CMT

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.