Oil and Gold Rise on Trump's Negotiation Tactics

Key Events to Watch

• Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and steel escalate trade war risks
• Middle East ceasefire deal set to expire this weekend if remaining hostages are not released
• Gold marks a new all-time high at $2,942
• Oil rebounds to key $72 zone

Oil Analysis

Oil prices climb once again on sanction and tariff risks, driven by non-sustainable factors while remaining within its broader downtrend. Key upside risks emerge from Trump’s negotiation tactics, including ceasefire expiry threats, tariffs, and sanctions on Iranian oil—each serving strategic objectives like hostage release, trade agreements, and nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Alongside Trump’s trade maneuvers, OPEC’s monthly oil report adds another layer of volatility, especially as it shifts reliance from the IEA to alternative data sources like OilX  KPLER. This coincides with the U.S. CPI release on Wednesday, which is expected to reshape Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, increasing oil price turbulence. Despite these factors, oil remains range-bound, with key support and resistance levels defining short-term bullish and bearish moves, while a clear breakout remains intangible.

Gold Analysis

Safe-haven demand is dominating headlines—but why? With escalating trade war risks and looming ceasefire uncertainties, gold remains the go-to hedge for investors. However, as gold briefly surged to an un-sustained high of $2,940, still below its primary uptrend channel, reversal risks emerge.

Meanwhile, silver remains cautious, holding below key resistance at $32.60 and its broader uptrend. Should trade and geopolitical tensions escalate, a break above $2,940 could extend gold’s gains toward $2,990, $3,000, and beyond. Established deals can fuel a sharp reversal.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

USOIL Analysis: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Oil’s range-bound movement saw a rebound from the $70 zone toward key resistance at $72.80, as sanctions and tariff risks dominated headlines.

While upside momentum remains short-lived, resistance at $72.80, $76, and $78 could push oil back into its extended downtrend channel from 2022 to 2025. Support levels at $70, $66, and $64 remain critical in maintaining range-bound movement.

A firm close above $80 or below $64 is required to establish a longer-term directional trend.

Gold Analysis: 3-Day Time Frame - Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Safe-haven demand propelled gold to an un-sustained high of $2,942 per ounce, retesting the lower boundary of the October 2023–2024 uptrend channel.

• RSI has reached extreme overbought levels, raising concerns of a possible pullback, especially with U.S. CPI data and trade negotiations ahead
• A close above $2,920 could support a further move beyond $3,000
• On the downside, key support levels to watch include $2,890, $2,820, $2,790, and $2,730
• A break below $2,730 could trigger a longer-term bearish outlook for gold

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

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