Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises despite Trump's tariff warning & hotter PPI data

US futures

Dow future 0.16% at 44424

S&P futures 0.13% at 6059

Nasdaq futures 0.31% at 21773

In Europe

FTSE 0.17% at 8757

Dax 1.74% at 22525

US PPI unexpectedly rose to 3.5% from 3.3%
Trump could announce reciprocal trade tariffs today
Risk sentiment is supported by Ukraine peace optimism
Oil falls on hopes of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal

PPI data, trade tariff worries & Ukraine peace hopes

After a mixed close yesterday, US stocks are heading for a mildly positive start as investors continue to weigh inflation data, hopes of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and worries over more trade tariffs from Trump.

US PPI was hotter than expected, rising to 3.5% YoY, up from 3.3% and defying expectations of a decline to 3.2%. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 0.4%, ahead of the 0.3% forecast.

The data comes after US CPI figures unexpectedly rose to 3% yesterday while underlying inflation also unexpectedly increased to 3.3% annually. Hotter PPI can point to an increase in CPI down the line.

The data comes as the Federal Reserve insisted that it was in no rush to cut interest rates. This supports the view that the Fed is unlikely to reduce rates in the first half of this year and may not cut rates at all in 2025, particularly if Trump's trade tariffs are applied aggressively.

At the start of the week, Trump announced 25% trade tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US, commencing March 4th with no exceptions. He has also said that he would announce reciprocal tariffs today, making good on his threat to apply tariffs on imports from countries that impose higher duties on US goods.

Worries over trade tariffs offset some optimism stemming from hopes of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Trump said yesterday that the two sides had expressed an interest in peace in separate phone calls.

Corporate news

Cisco is rising 6% premarket after the tech firm lifted its annual revenue guidance. AI-fueled demand for its cloud network gear is helping Cisco.

Reddit is set to open 10% lower after the social media platform’s daily active unique visitors in Q4 missed forecasts. CEO Hoffman cited changes to Google's search algorithm as impacting the number of users coming to the website.

Robinhood will open over 12% higher after the cryptocurrency trading platform posted upbeat Q4 revenue and profit, fueled by a resurgence in retail trading.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq once again recovered off the 50 SMA yesterday, with the long lower wick suggesting little selling demand at the lower levels. Buyers, supported by momentum, will look to rise above 22k resistance zone and head towards 22,133 and fresh record highs. Sellers need to take out the 50 SMA support around 21,500 to open the door to 21k.

FX markets – USD falls, GBP/USD rises

USD is modestly lower on Thursday as investors weigh up the prospect of a possible peace deal in Ukraine against the prospect of reciprocal tariffs. PPI data and weekly jobless claims figures are also in focus.

EUR/USD is rising for a second day with optimism surrounding peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the price has fallen away from session highs after US President Donald Trump hinted at the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in a social media post.

GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker U.S. dollar, and after UK Q4, GDP was stronger than expected. Q4 GDP rose 0.1% QoQ, defying expectations of a -0.1 % decline. Meanwhile, GDP in December rose 0.4% after several months of stagnation. 2024 GDP was 0.9%; however, the Bank of England is only expecting 0.75% growth in 2025.

Oil falls after inventories rise

Oil prices are falling for a second straight day, fueled by optimism about a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and rising US oil inventories.

Yesterday, Trump's announcement that Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky have shown interest in a peace deal raised hopes that the three-year war could come to an end. This could alter the supply outlook if Russian exports hit the international market. Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer, had sanctions placed on its crude exports following its invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, a rise in US oil inventories is also weighing on the price after data from the EIA showed that crude stockpiles rose by more than expected in the previous week.

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