Kiwi Crosses Point Towards Further Weakness Ahead

NZD crosses are falling in tandem which suggests broader weakness awaits.

NZD/USD remains in a clear downtrend, and the retracement from the 0.6269 low appears to have had its day. The correction failed to retest the 38.2% Fibonacci level and, after a few days of consolidation, printed a bearish pinbar which was also a bearish outside day. Bearish momentum is clearly back with prices back beneath the 2016 low. The bias is for a re-test of 0.6294 and break lower, whist 0.6451 holds as resistance.

NZD/JPY is sensitive to risk appetite, although it may have topped without risk-off being required. For example, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY are holding up well (considering yesterday’s explosive move on oil markets) and with NZD/JPY suggesting a swing-high is in place, bears may want to keep an eye on this in case risk appetite sours.

A bearish pinbar failed to see prices close above January’s flash-crash on Thursday, and Friday saw a break beneath its low to warn of a near-term top.
Bearish momentum has taken the cross to a 7-session low. With momentum having reverted to its longer-term bearish trend, we’d consider bearish setups whilst the hammer high (or prior support around 36.75) hold as resistance.
Bears could use a break of the 20-day eMA/38.2% Fibonacci level to assume bearish continuation, using the 50% and 61.8% levels as interim, bearish targets.

GBP/NZD broke out of compression on the back of a stronger British pound on Friday. Over the near-term we’d prefer to see some more consolidation, given that range expansion paused at the upper Keltner band ahead of yesterday’s doji with a slight bearish divergence.

A retracement towards 1.9415 would be a welcome development for traders who like to buy dips. Or traders can refer to lower timeframes to trade continuation patterns for smaller moves.
The spike high near 1.6979 could provide interim resistance, but if prices trade above here the target becomes the high around 2.000.

NZD/CAD's short swing-trade idea finally appears to be playing out. A bearish wedge has formed during a strong downtrend, and the retracement respected 0.8500 resistance before rolling over yesterday. The underlying analysis remains unchanged; bearish below 0.8500 with potential to target (or even break below) the 2018 low.

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